IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/compsc/v32y2015i1p50-75.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasting conflict management in militarized interstate disputes

Author

Listed:
  • Andrew P. Owsiak

Abstract

Is predicting the international community’s cumulative response to an interstate dispute possible? Can we predict what form conflict management will take and how it will evolve over the course of a dispute? I employ the concept of a conflict management trajectory to test a forecasting model of conflict management. This model accurately predicts conflict management behavior and uncovers numerous novel insights—including that the initial intervention indicates clearly the resources the international community is willing to spend on managing the dispute. These results confirm the need to theorize further about conflict management interdependence and offer clear advice to the policy community.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew P. Owsiak, 2015. "Forecasting conflict management in militarized interstate disputes," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 32(1), pages 50-75, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:compsc:v:32:y:2015:i:1:p:50-75
    DOI: 10.1177/0738894214545034
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0738894214545034
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/0738894214545034?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Derrick V. Frazier & William J. Dixon, 2006. "Third-Party Intermediaries and Negotiated Settlements, 1946--2000," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 385-408, December.
    2. David Quinn & Jonathan Wilkenfeld & Kathleen Smarick & Victor Asal, 2006. "Power Play: Mediation in Symmetric and Asymmetric International Crises," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 441-470, December.
    3. J. Michael Greig, 2005. "Stepping Into the Fray: When Do Mediators Mediate?," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 49(2), pages 249-266, April.
    4. Jacob Bercovitch & Scott Sigmund Gartner, 2006. "Is There Method in the Madness of Mediation? Some Lessons for Mediators from Quantitative Studies of Mediation," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 329-354, December.
    5. Werner, Suzanne & Yuen, Amy, 2005. "Making and Keeping Peace," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 59(2), pages 261-292, April.
    6. Andrew Kydd, 2003. "Which Side Are You On? Bias, Credibility, and Mediation," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 47(4), pages 597-611, October.
    7. Jack A. Goldstone & Robert H. Bates & David L. Epstein & Ted Robert Gurr & Michael B. Lustik & Monty G. Marshall & Jay Ulfelder & Mark Woodward, 2010. "A Global Model for Forecasting Political Instability," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(1), pages 190-208, January.
    8. J. Michael Greig & Paul F. Diehl, 2006. "Softening Up: Making Conflicts More Amenable to Diplomacy," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 355-384, December.
    9. Paul K. Huth & Sarah E. Croco & Benjamin J. Appel, 2013. "Bringing Law to the Table: Legal Claims, Focal Points, and the Settlement of Territorial Disputes Since 1945," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 57(1), pages 90-103, January.
    10. Molly M. Melin & Isak Svensson, 2009. "Incentives for Talking: Accepting Mediation in International and Civil Wars," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 249-271, August.
    11. Favretto, Katja, 2009. "Should Peacemakers Take Sides? Major Power Mediation, Coercion, and Bias," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 103(2), pages 248-263, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Molly M. Melin & Scott Sigmund Gartner & Jacob Bercovitch, 2013. "Fear of rejection: The puzzle of unaccepted mediation offers in international conflict," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 30(4), pages 354-368, September.
    2. Kyle Beardsley, 2008. "Agreement without Peace? International Mediation and Time Inconsistency Problems," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 52(4), pages 723-740, October.
    3. Renato Corbetta & Molly M. Melin, 2018. "Exploring the Threshold between Conflict Management and Joining in Biased Interventions," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 62(10), pages 2205-2231, November.
    4. Dominic Rohner, 2018. "Success Factors for Peace Treaties: A Review of Theory and Evidence," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 18.08, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.
    5. Tobias Böhmelt, 2015. "The spatial contagion of international mediation," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 32(1), pages 108-127, February.
    6. David Quinn & Jonathan Wilkenfeld & Pelin Eralp & Victor Asal & Theodore Mclauchlin, 2013. "Crisis managers but not conflict resolvers: Mediating ethnic intrastate conflict in Africa," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 30(4), pages 387-406, September.
    7. Govinda Clayton & Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, 2014. "Will we see helping hands? Predicting civil war mediation and likely success," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 31(3), pages 265-284, July.
    8. Vanessa A. Lefler, 2015. "Strategic forum selection and compliance in interstate dispute resolution," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 32(1), pages 76-98, February.
    9. Molly M. Melin, 2015. "Escalation in international conflict management: A foreign policy perspective," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 32(1), pages 28-49, February.
    10. Shawn L. Ramirez, 2018. "Mediation in the shadow of an audience: How third parties use secrecy and agenda-setting to broker settlements," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 30(1), pages 119-146, January.
    11. Tobias Böhmelt, 2013. "Failing to succeed? The cumulative impact of international mediation revisited1," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 30(3), pages 199-219, July.
    12. Renato Corbetta & Keith A. Grant, 2012. "Intervention in Conflicts from a Network Perspective," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 29(3), pages 314-340, July.
    13. Kyle Beardsley, 2013. "The UN at the peacemaking–peacebuilding nexus," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 30(4), pages 369-386, September.
    14. Zeev Maoz & Randolph M. Siverson, 2008. "Bargaining, Domestic Politics, and International Context in the Management of War: A Review Essay," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 25(2), pages 171-189, April.
    15. Frederick R. Chen, 2019. "Disentangling bias: national capabilities, regime type, and international conflict mediation," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 36(2), pages 149-168, March.
    16. Bernd Beber, 2012. "International Mediation, Selection Effects, and the Question of Bias," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 29(4), pages 397-424, September.
    17. Tobias Böhmelt, 2010. "The Impact of Trade on International Mediation," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 54(4), pages 566-592, August.
    18. Emir Yazici, 2020. "Transborder identities, bias, and third-party conflict management," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 37(4), pages 490-511, July.
    19. Eisenkopf, Gerald, 2016. "Communication and Conflict Management," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145634, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    20. Eisenkopf, Gerald, 2018. "The long-run effects of communication as a conflict resolution mechanism," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 121-136.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:compsc:v:32:y:2015:i:1:p:50-75. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://pss.la.psu.edu/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.