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Risk Factors for Forced Migrant Flight

Author

Listed:
  • Jacqueline H. Rubin

    (Department of Political Science The Florida State University Tallahassee, USA, jrubin@fsu.edu)

  • Will H. Moore

    (Department of Political Science The Florida State University Tallahassee, USA)

Abstract

An important type of medical study seeks to establish the risk factors for contracting various diseases. A similar, but very small, vein of research exists in peace and conflict studies, and we seek to contribute to it. Our study evaluates whether variables shown to explain variance in numbers of forced migrants can serve as risk factors that might aid contingency planning for such humanitarian crises. We study a cross-national sample of cases over the period from 1985 through 1994. Our findings indicate that annual, country-level indicators of civil war, a forced migrant episode, and human rights violations are candidate risk factors for forced migration in the following year. Interestingly, when using country-years as the unit of observation genocide is not a useful risk factor for forced migration.

Suggested Citation

  • Jacqueline H. Rubin & Will H. Moore, 2007. "Risk Factors for Forced Migrant Flight," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 24(2), pages 85-104, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:compsc:v:24:y:2007:i:2:p:85-104
    DOI: 10.1080/07388940701257481
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fearon, James D. & Laitin, David D., 2003. "Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 97(1), pages 75-90, February.
    2. Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler & Måns Söderbom, 2004. "On the Duration of Civil War," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 41(3), pages 253-273, May.
    3. Licklider, Roy, 1995. "The Consequences of Negotiated Settlements in Civil Wars, 1945–1993," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 89(3), pages 681-690, September.
    4. James D. Fearon, 2004. "Why Do Some Civil Wars Last So Much Longer than Others?," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 41(3), pages 275-301, May.
    5. Harff, Barbara, 2003. "No Lessons Learned from the Holocaust? Assessing Risks of Genocide and Political Mass Murder since 1955," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 97(1), pages 57-73, February.
    6. Christina Davenport & Will Moore & Steven Poe, 2003. "Sometimes You Just Have to Leave: Domestic Threats and Forced Migration, 1964-1989," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 27-55, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kuhnt, Jana, 2019. "Literature review: drivers of migration. Why do people leave their homes? Is there an easy answer? A structured overview of migratory determinants," IDOS Discussion Papers 9/2019, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).
    2. fofana, moustapha & Lawson, Laté & ballo, zié, 2019. "Assessing the migration and social instability nexus in sub-saharan Africa : A spatial analysis," MPRA Paper 96471, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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