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Expected Utility and Peace Science: An Assessment of Trade and Conflict

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  • Lois W. Sayrs

    (Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of Iowa)

Abstract

In this paper, I attempt to tease out the implications of expected utility models on conflict resolution and peace science. I also consider the trade-conflict model of Polachek (1980) and its extensions, as one example of expected utility in international relations. I raise three questions concerning the impact of expected utility: (1) when does trade mitigate conflict? (2) can trade provoke conflict? (3) can trade induce cooperation? From a review of empirical findings, I consider the political content of the trade-conflict model in particular, and of expected utility models, in general. Subsequently, I discuss two additional questions: (4) how do exchange norms influence trade and conflict? and (5) what incentives exist to foster cooperation from trade under expected utility? I advance the critique that while expected utility underrepresents political actions and motives, the implicit content of politics in the trade-conflict model is predominantly realist. Given this tendency, expected utility in conflict resolution and peace science will invariably be used to model strategic and geostrategic concerns.

Suggested Citation

  • Lois W. Sayrs, 1990. "Expected Utility and Peace Science: An Assessment of Trade and Conflict," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 11(1), pages 17-44, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:compsc:v:11:y:1990:i:1:p:17-44
    DOI: 10.1177/073889429001100102
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mark Gasiorowski & Solomon W. Polachek, 1982. "Conflict and Interdependence," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 26(4), pages 709-729, December.
    2. Solomon William Polachek, 1980. "Conflict and Trade," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 24(1), pages 55-78, March.
    3. Gilles Oudiz & Jeffrey Sachs, 1984. "Macroeconomic Policy Coordination among the Industrial Economies," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 15(1), pages 1-76.
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    Cited by:

    1. Reuveny Rafael, 2000. "The Trade and Conflict Debate: A Survey of Theory, Evidence and Future Research," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 23-49, January.
    2. Polachek Solomon W., 1999. "Conflict and Trade: An Economics Approach to Political International Interactions," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 5(2), pages 1-32, April.
    3. Chang, Yuan-Ching & Polachek, Solomon W. & Robst, John, 2004. "Conflict and trade: the relationship between geographic distance and international interactions," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 491-509, September.
    4. Peter A.G. van Bergeijk, 2009. "Economic Diplomacy and the Geography of International Trade," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 13518.
    5. Polachek Solomon W, 2011. "Current Research and Future Directions in Peace Economics: Trade Gone Awry," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 16(2), pages 1-14, January.
    6. Reuveny Rafael, 2001. "Economic Openness As a Goal? The Bigger Picture for the Global System," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-28, January.

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