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Exchange Rate Variability and Direct Investment

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  • MARTIN J. BAILEY
  • GEORGE S. TAVLAS

Abstract

This article investigates the relationship between exchange rate variability and direct investment. We distinguish between two kinds of exchange rate variations: short-term volatility and longer-term misalignment. Theoretical considerations indicate that the influences of both kinds of exchange rate variations on direct investment are ambiguous. We then review the empirical literature on this issue, which supports the theoretical findings. We conclude that, contrary to the arguments of proponents of managed exchange rate regimes, the increased variability of exchange rates under the managed floating system has not been harmful to direct investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin J. Bailey & George S. Tavlas, 1991. "Exchange Rate Variability and Direct Investment," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 516(1), pages 106-116, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:anname:v:516:y:1991:i:1:p:106-116
    DOI: 10.1177/0002716291516001009
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jacob A. Frenkel & Morris Goldstein, 1991. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Misalignment: Evaluating some Proposals for Reform," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Alfred Steinherr & Daniel Weiserbs (ed.), Evolution of the International and Regional Monetary Systems, chapter 8, pages 99-131, Palgrave Macmillan.
    2. Martin J. Bailey & George S. Tavlas, 1988. "Trade and Investment under Floating Rates: The U.S. Experience," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 8(2), pages 421-449, Fall.
    3. Richard Baldwin & Paul Krugman, 1989. "Persistent Trade Effects of Large Exchange Rate Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 104(4), pages 635-654.
    4. Tavlas, G.S., 1991. "On the International Use of Currencies: the Case of the Deutsche Mark," Princeton Studies in International Economics 181, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
    5. Cushman, David O, 1985. "Real Exchange Rate Risk, Expectations, and the Level of Direct Investment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(2), pages 297-308, May.
    6. International Monetary Fund, 1984. "Exchange Rate Volatility and World Trade," IMF Occasional Papers 1984/005, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Rudiger Dornbusch & Jeffrey Frankel, 1988. "The Flexible Exchange Rate System: Experience and Alternatives," International Economic Association Series, in: Silvio Borner (ed.), International Finance and Trade in a Polycentric World, chapter 7, pages 151-208, Palgrave Macmillan.
    8. Bailey, Martin J. & Tavlas, George S. & Ulan, Michael, 1987. "The impact of exchange-rate volatility on export growth: Some theoretical considerations and empirical results," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 225-243.
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    1. Warren Moraghen & Boopen Seetanah & Noor Ul Haq Sookia, 2023. "The impact of exchange rate and exchange rate volatility on Mauritius foreign direct investment: A sector‐wise analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 208-224, January.

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