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The Long-Run Impact of Age Demographics on the U.S. Divorce Rate

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  • John M. Nunley
  • Joachim Zietz

Abstract

We investigate, for the time period 1932 to 2006, the extent to which fluctuations in the fraction of the population in the 20–29 year-old age group can predict movements in the aggregate U.S. divorce rate. We find that fluctuations in our age-composition variable are a very robust predictor of the divorce rate in the long run, with estimated elasticities ranging from 1 to 1.3 depending on the modeling approach. We check the sensitivity of the age-divorce relationship to the inclusion of a number of other explanatory variables advanced in the literature as potential determinants of the divorce rate, including the participation rate of females in higher education as a proxy for female economic independence and macroeconomic variables.

Suggested Citation

  • John M. Nunley & Joachim Zietz, 2012. "The Long-Run Impact of Age Demographics on the U.S. Divorce Rate," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 57(1), pages 65-77, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:amerec:v:57:y:2012:i:1:p:65-77
    DOI: 10.1177/056943451205700106
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Justin Wolfers, 2006. "Did Unilateral Divorce Laws Raise Divorce Rates? A Reconciliation and New Results," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1802-1820, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. P. Wesley Routon, 2017. "Military service and marital dissolution: a trajectory analysis," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 335-355, March.

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