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Nonlinear Dependence in Gold and Silver Futures: Is it Chaos?

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  • Arjun Chatrath
  • Bahram Adrangi
  • Todd Shank

Abstract

We test for the presence of low-dimensional chaotic structure in the gold and silver futures markets. While we find strong evidence of nonlinear dependencies, the evidence is not consistent with chaos. Our test results indicate that ARCH-type processes, with controls for contract-maturity effects, generally explain the nonlinearities in the data. We also make a case that employing seasonally adjusted price series is important to obtaining robust results via some of the existing tests for chaotic structure.

Suggested Citation

  • Arjun Chatrath & Bahram Adrangi & Todd Shank, 2001. "Nonlinear Dependence in Gold and Silver Futures: Is it Chaos?," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 45(2), pages 25-32, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:amerec:v:45:y:2001:i:2:p:25-32
    DOI: 10.1177/056943450104500203
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    6. Murray Frank & Thanasis Stengos, 1989. "Measuring the Strangeness of Gold and Silver Rates of Return," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 56(4), pages 553-567.
    7. Brock, William A. & Sayers, Chera L., 1988. "Is the business cycle characterized by deterministic chaos?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 71-90, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Vigne, Samuel A. & Lucey, Brian M. & O’Connor, Fergal A. & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2017. "The financial economics of white precious metals — A survey," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 292-308.
    2. O'Connor, Fergal A. & Lucey, Brian M. & Batten, Jonathan A. & Baur, Dirk G., 2015. "The financial economics of gold — A survey," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 186-205.
    3. Samet G nay, 2015. "Chaotic Structure of the BRIC Countries and Turkey's Stock Market," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 5(2), pages 515-522.

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