IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/prs/reveco/reco_0035-2764_1994_num_45_2_409520.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Les rentabilités à la bourse de Paris sont-elles chaotiques ?

Author

Listed:
  • Isabelle Girerd-Potin
  • Ollivier Taramasco

Abstract

[fre] Les rentabilités à la bourse de Paris sont-elles chaotiques ?. . Parmi les processus déterministes, les processus chaotiques ont des trajectoires qui ressemblent à celles d'un processus stochastique. Cette étude essaie de déterminer si le processus qui génère les rentabilités de l'indice SBF est déterministe. Après un rappel des propriétés de la dynamique chaotique, les outils standards de détection du chaos sont utilisés sur les rentabilités boursières. Certaines mesures peuvent inciter à conclure à l'existence d'une dynamique chaotique générant les rentabilités de l'indice SBF, mais une analyse plus fine et l'échec des méthodes de prévision à court terme invitent à préférer une modélisation stochastique du processus des rentabilités. [eng] Are french stock market returns chaotic ?. . Among deterministic processes, chaotic processes have trajectories that seem to be stochastic. This article tries to answer to the question : are the returns of the French SBF index deterministic ? After explaining the properties of the chaotic dynamics, the usual tools to detect chaos are used on the stock market returns. Some results are in favour of a chaotic process for the SBF index, but a closer look and the unsuccessfulness of forecasting methods lead to prefer a stochastic model for the return process.

Suggested Citation

  • Isabelle Girerd-Potin & Ollivier Taramasco, 1994. "Les rentabilités à la bourse de Paris sont-elles chaotiques ?," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 45(2), pages 215-238.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_1994_num_45_2_409520
    DOI: 10.3406/reco.1994.409520
    Note: DOI:10.3406/reco.1994.409520
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.3406/reco.1994.409520
    Download Restriction: Data and metadata provided by Persée are licensed under a Creative Commons "Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 3.0" License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/
    File URL: https://www.persee.fr/doc/reco_0035-2764_1994_num_45_2_409520
    Download Restriction: Data and metadata provided by Persée are licensed under a Creative Commons "Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 3.0" License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.3406/reco.1994.409520?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brock, W. A., 1986. "Distinguishing random and deterministic systems: Abridged version," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 168-195, October.
    2. Hsieh, David A, 1991. "Chaos and Nonlinear Dynamics: Application to Financial Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1839-1877, December.
    3. Day, Richard H. & Huang, Weihong, 1990. "Bulls, bears and market sheep," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 299-329, December.
    4. Scheinkman, Jose A & LeBaron, Blake, 1989. "Nonlinear Dynamics and Stock Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(3), pages 311-337, July.
    5. Frank, Murray Z. & Stengos, Thanasis, 1988. "Some evidence concerning macroeconomic chaos," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 423-438.
    6. Brock, William A. & Sayers, Chera L., 1988. "Is the business cycle characterized by deterministic chaos?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 71-90, July.
    7. Brock, W.A., 1988. "Nonlinearity And Complex Dynamics In Economics And Finance," Working papers 360, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Monia Antar Limam, 2017. "Autosimilarty, Long Memory and Chaos: Evidence from the Tunisian Market," Business and Management Studies, Redfame publishing, vol. 3(2), pages 61-77, June.
    2. RIANE, Nizare, 2014. "Etude de la dynamique non-linéaire des rentabilités de la bourse de Casablanca [Study of the returns nonlinear dynamics of the Casablanca stock exchange]," MPRA Paper 61957, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Feb 2015.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Barnett, William A. & Serletis, Apostolos & Serletis, Demitre, 2015. "Nonlinear And Complex Dynamics In Economics," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(8), pages 1749-1779, December.
    2. Szpiro, George G., 1997. "Noise in unspecified, non-linear time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 229-255, June.
    3. Halkos, George & Tsilika, Kyriaki, 2014. "Nonlinear time series analysis of annual temperatures concerning the global Earth climate," MPRA Paper 59140, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Takala, Kari & Virén, Matti, 1995. "Testing nonlinear dynamics, long memory and chaotic behaviour with macroeconomic data," Research Discussion Papers 9/1995, Bank of Finland.
    5. repec:zbw:bofrdp:1995_009 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Marisa Faggini, 2011. "Chaotic Time Series Analysis in Economics: Balance and Perspectives," Working papers 25, Former Department of Economics and Public Finance "G. Prato", University of Torino.
    7. Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H., 1997. "Models of Compelxity in Economics and Finance," Working papers 9706, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    8. Luis A. Aguirre & Antonio Aguirre, 1997. "A tutorial introduction to nonlinear dynamics in economics," Nova Economia, Economics Department, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (Brazil), vol. 7(2), pages 9-47.
    9. Olmedo, Elena, 2011. "Is there chaos in the Spanish labour market?," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 44(12), pages 1045-1053.
    10. Gilmore, Claire G., 2001. "An examination of nonlinear dependence in exchange rates, using recent methods from chaos theory," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 139-151.
    11. Takala, Kari & Virén, Matti, 1995. "Testing nonlinear dynamics, long memory and chaotic behaviour with macroeconomic data," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 9/1995, Bank of Finland.
    12. Mills, Terence C., 1995. "Business cycle asymmetries and non-linearities in U.K. macroeconomic time series," Ricerche Economiche, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 97-124, June.
    13. Ignacio Olmeda & Joaquin Pérez, 1995. "Non-linear dynamics and chaos in the Spanish stock market," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 19(2), pages 217-248, May.
    14. McKenzie, Michael D., 2001. "Chaotic behavior in national stock market indices: New evidence from the close returns test," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 35-53.
    15. A. Corcos & J-P Eckmann & A. Malaspinas & Y. Malevergne & D. Sornette, 2002. "Imitation and contrarian behaviour: hyperbolic bubbles, crashes and chaos," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(4), pages 264-281.
    16. Panas, E., 2001. "Long memory and chaotic models of prices on the London Metal Exchange," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 235-246, December.
    17. Ayan Bhattacharya & Rudra Sensarma, 2013. "Non-linearities in Emerging Financial Markets: Evidence from India," IIM Kozhikode Society & Management Review, , vol. 2(2), pages 165-175, July.
    18. Matilla-García, Mariano & Marín, Manuel Ruiz, 2010. "A new test for chaos and determinism based on symbolic dynamics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 600-614, December.
    19. repec:dau:papers:123456789/3188 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Barnett, William A. & Serletis, Apostolos, 2000. "Martingales, nonlinearity, and chaos," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 703-724, June.
    21. Madhavan, Vinodh, 2013. "Nonlinearity in investment grade Credit Default Swap (CDS) Indices of US and Europe: Evidence from BDS and close-returns tests," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 266-279.
    22. Marisa Faggini & Bruna Bruno & Anna Parziale, 2019. "Does Chaos Matter in Financial Time Series Analysis?," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 9(4), pages 18-24.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_1994_num_45_2_409520. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Equipe PERSEE (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.persee.fr/collection/reco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.