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Estimation Of Risk Neutral Measure For Polish Stock Market

Author

Listed:
  • Pawe³ Kliber

    (Poznan University of Economics)

Abstract

In the paper we present the application of risk neutral measure estimation in the analysis of the index WIG20 from Polish stock market. The risk neutral measure is calculated from the process of the options on that index. We assume that risk neutral measure is the mixture of lognormal distributions. The parameters of the distributions are estimated by minimizing the sum of squares of pricing errors. Obtained results are then compared with the model based on a single lognormal distribution. As an example we consider changes in risk neutral distribution at the beginning of March 2014, after the outbreak of political crisis in the Crimea.

Suggested Citation

  • Pawe³ Kliber, 2014. "Estimation Of Risk Neutral Measure For Polish Stock Market," "e-Finanse", University of Information Technology and Management, Institute of Financial Research and Analysis, vol. 10(2), pages 28-37, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:rze:efinan:v:10:y:2014:i:2:p:28-37
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    risk-neutral pricing; option-implied density; risk aversion; real-world measure; event study Least Squares Method;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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