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Forecasting Accuracy and Structural Stability of the Economic Base Model

Author

Listed:
  • Paul E. Polzin

    (University of Montana)

  • Kent Connaughton

    (USDA Forest Service)

  • Con H. Schallau

    (USDA Forest Service)

  • James T. Sylvester

    (University of Montana)

Abstract

Despite the forecasting and impact analysis emphasis, there have been no attempts to evaluate the economic base model on the basis of its predictions. Simply comparing the projections reported in impact studies with actual data may provide unreliable tests because the specified project may be only one of many sources of local area change. This paper examines the performance of the economic base model for four timber-dependent communities in the Pacific Northwest, using the accuracy of ex post forecasts and other statistical measures.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul E. Polzin & Kent Connaughton & Con H. Schallau & James T. Sylvester, 1988. "Forecasting Accuracy and Structural Stability of the Economic Base Model," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 18(2), pages 23-36, Spring.
    • Handle: RePEc:rre:publsh:v18:y:1988:i:2:p:23-36
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Charles M. Gray & Clifton B. Luttrell, 1970. "Metropolitan area growth: a test of export base concepts," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 52(Jul), pages 8-24.
    2. Frank Giarratani & Paul D. McNelis, 1980. "Time Series Evidence Bearing on Crude Theories of Regional Growth," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 56(2), pages 238-248.
    3. Mark S. Henry & J. C. O. Nyankori, 1981. "The Existence of Short-Run Economic Base Multipliers: Some New Empirical Evidence," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 57(3), pages 448-458.
    4. Lloyd D. Bender & Larry C. Parcels, 1983. "Structural Differences and the Time Pattern of Basic Employment," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 59(2), pages 220-234.
    5. James E. McNulty, 1977. "A Test of the Time Dimension in Economic Base Analysis," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 53(3), pages 359-368.
    6. Charles B. Garrison, 1972. "The Impact of New Industry: An Application of the Economic Base Multiplier to Small Rural Areas," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 48(4), pages 329-337.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dominique Vollet & Jean-Paul Bousset, 2002. "Use of Meta-analysis for the Comparison and Transfer of Economic Base Multipliers," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(5), pages 481-494.
    2. Jean-Paul Bousset & Dominique Vollet, 2003. "Apports de l'analyse des ensembles approximatifs à une application de la méta-analyse en économie régionale. Illustration à partir des modèles de la base économique," Revue d'économie régionale et urbaine, Armand Colin, vol. 0(5), pages 773-798.

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