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Stima del Value-at-Risk con il Filtro di Kalman

Author

Listed:
  • Cristina Sommacampagna

    (Università di Verona)

Abstract

In questo articolo si sviluppa un nuovo approccio per il calcolo del Value-at-Risk che utilizza il Filtro di Kalman per stimare il beta dei titoli di un portafoglio. Tale tecnica viene applicata al portafoglio azionario di una società assicurativa e confrontata con i metodi tradizionali basati sulla matrice di varianza-covarianza dei rendimenti e il beta di Sharpe stimato con i minimi quadrati ordinari. L’analisi di back testing evidenzia che la metodologia proposta è in grado di cogliere la dinamica del mercato finanziario e di adattarsi con flessibilità alle esigenze di copertura di un’istituzione finanziaria.

Suggested Citation

  • Cristina Sommacampagna, 2002. "Stima del Value-at-Risk con il Filtro di Kalman," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, vol. 92(6), pages 147-174, November-.
    • Handle: RePEc:rpo:ripoec:v:92:y:2002:i:6:p:147-174
    as

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    File URL: http://www.rivistapoliticaeconomica.it/2002/nov-dic/sommacamp.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Evis Këllezi & Manfred Gilli, 2000. "Extreme Value Theory for Tail-Related Risk Measures," FAME Research Paper Series rp18, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
    2. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    3. McNeil, Alexander J., 1997. "Estimating the Tails of Loss Severity Distributions Using Extreme Value Theory," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(1), pages 117-137, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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