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Re-Examining the Nexus between Exchange and Interest Rates in Nigeria

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  • David Mautin Oke
  • Koye Gerry Bokana
  • Olatunji Abdul Shobande

Abstract

Nigeria has experienced somersault of foreign exchange policies by the Central Bank. One policy concern in recent times is to have an appropriate target of the exchange and interest rates. Therefore, this paper seeks to provide a foundation for the targeting of an appropriate exchange and interest rates for the country. Using the Johansen Cointegration and Vector Error Correction Mechanism approaches, it specifically examines the relationships among Nigeria’s weak exchange rate, its local rate of interest and world interest rate. Contrary to many studies, a control measure involving inclusion of inflation, money supply and national output in the model is done. The analysis showed an equilibrium association between exchange rate and interest rate-cum-other variables and steady rectification of deviance from long-run stability over a sequence of incomplete short-run modifications. Increase in domestic and world interest rate, inflation, money supply and GDPat equilibrium would strengthen the exchange rate. Besides, further findings showed some bidirectional causal associations among the variables. By long-run implication, the targeting of an appropriate exchange rate in Nigeria requires a tightened monetary policy that is not inflation and growth biased. However, increase in world interest rate, money supply and inflation rate must be moderate in order not to worsen the exchange rate as suggested by the short-run result.

Suggested Citation

  • David Mautin Oke & Koye Gerry Bokana & Olatunji Abdul Shobande, 2018. "Re-Examining the Nexus between Exchange and Interest Rates in Nigeria," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 9(6), pages 47-56.
    • Handle: RePEc:rnd:arjebs:v:9:y:2018:i:6:p:47-56
    DOI: 10.22610/jebs.v9i6(J).2004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Olatunji Abdul Shobande, 2019. "Effect of Economic Integration on Agricultural Export Performance in Selected West African Countries," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-14, August.
    2. Auyo Musa, Abdulhamid & Rafindadi Sanusi, Aliyu, 2021. "Relationship Between Interest Rate And Exchange Rate In Nigeria: Does The Banking Sector Debt Level Matter?," Ilorin Journal of Economic Policy, Department of Economics, University of Ilorin, vol. 8(2), pages 89-103, June.
    3. Atoi, Ngozi Victor & Nwambeke, Chinedu G., 2021. "Money and Foreign Exchange Markets Dynamics in Nigeria: A Multivariate GARCH Approach," MPRA Paper 109305, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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