IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rnd/arjebs/v9y2017i2p215-223.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Budget Deficits and Economic Growth: A Vector Error Correction Modelling of South Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Kagiso Molefe
  • Andrew Maredza

Abstract

The primary motivation behind this study was to explore the consequential effects of budget deficit on South Africa`s economic growth. Six variables were used, namely: real GDP, budget deficit, real interest rate, labour, gross fixed capital formation and unemployment. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) was used to estimate the long-run equation and also measure the correction from disequilibrium of preceding periods. Using annual time series data spanning the period 1985 to 2015, empirical evidence from the study revealed that budget deficits and economic growth are inversely related. It was therefore concluded that high levels of budget deficit in South Africa have detrimental effects on the growth of the economy. The estimate of the speed of adjustment coefficient found in this study revealed that about 29 per cent of the variation in GDP from its equilibrium level is corrected within one year. The results obtained in this study are favourably similar to those in the literature and are also sustained by previous studies.

Suggested Citation

  • Kagiso Molefe & Andrew Maredza, 2017. "Budget Deficits and Economic Growth: A Vector Error Correction Modelling of South Africa," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 9(2), pages 215-223.
  • Handle: RePEc:rnd:arjebs:v:9:y:2017:i:2:p:215-223
    DOI: 10.22610/jebs.v9i2(J).1662
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ojs.amhinternational.com/index.php/jebs/article/view/1662/1431
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://ojs.amhinternational.com/index.php/jebs/article/view/1662
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22610/jebs.v9i2(J).1662?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Barro, Robert J, 1989. "The Ricardian Approach to Budget Deficits," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 37-54, Spring.
    2. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    3. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    4. R. Glenn Hubbard & Kenneth L. Judd, 1986. "Liquidity Constraints, Fiscal Policy, and Consumption," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 17(1), pages 1-60.
    5. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    6. Rumbidzai Aime Biza & Forget Mingiri Kapingura & Asrat Tsegaye, 2015. "Do budget deficits crowd out private investment? An analysis of the South African economy," International Journal of Economic Policy in Emerging Economies, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 8(1), pages 52-76.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Raymond Osi Alenoghena & Samuel David Adebisi & Ayobola Olufolake Charles, 2022. "Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Variables in Africa: A Bayesian VAR Approach," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 6(12), pages 731-741, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Abhinandan Kulal & Deepak Kallige Vishwanath & Sanath Kumar Kanthila, 2023. "Dynamic Relationship Between Rupee-Dollar Exchange Rate and Major Economic Indicators," American Journal of Economics and Business Administration, Science Publications, vol. 15(1), pages 18-30, August.
    2. Phylaktis, Kate & Chen, Long, 2009. "Price discovery in foreign exchange markets: A comparison of indicative and actual transaction prices," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 640-654, September.
    3. Klaus Prettner & Robert Kunst, 2012. "The dynamic interrelations between unequal neighbors: an Austro-German case study," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 741-761, October.
    4. Sari, Ramazan & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Soytas, Ugur, 2010. "Dynamics of oil price, precious metal prices, and exchange rate," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 351-362, March.
    5. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:30:y:2010:i:1:p:558-576 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza & Markwardt, Gunther, 2009. "The effects of oil price shocks on the Iranian economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 134-151, January.
    7. Ioannis Litsios & Keith Pilbeam & Dimitrios Asteriou, 2021. "DSGE modelling for the UK economy 1974–2017," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(2), pages 295-323, April.
    8. Anthony Garratt & Kevin Lee & M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin, 2003. "A Long run structural macroeconometric model of the UK," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(487), pages 412-455, April.
    9. Ramazan Sari & Ugur Soytas, 2006. "Income and Education in Turkey: A Multivariate Analysis," Education Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 181-196.
    10. Garratt, Anthony & Lee, Kevin C & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "A Structural Cointegrating VAR Approach to Macroeconometric Modelling," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9823, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    11. Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza, 2011. "Oil revenue shocks and government spending behavior in Iran," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1055-1069.
    12. Filip, Ondrej & Janda, Karel & Kristoufek, Ladislav & Zilberman, David, 2019. "Food versus fuel: An updated and expanded evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 152-166.
    13. Pilar Poncela & Eva Senra & Lya Paola Sierra, 2017. "Long-term links between raw materials prices, real exchange rate and relative de-industrialization in a commodity-dependent economy: empirical evidence of “Dutch disease” in Colombia," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(2), pages 777-798, March.
    14. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan & Tim Krieger, 2017. "The response of income inequality to positive oil rents shocks in Iran: Implications for the post-sanction period," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201733, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    15. Anupam Das & Murshed Chowdhury, 2019. "Macroeconomic impacts of remittances in Bangladesh: The role of reverse flows," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 48(3), November.
    16. Muhammad Afzal, 2012. "Ricardian equivalence hypothesis: Evidence from Pakistan," E3 Journal of Business Management and Economics., E3 Journals, vol. 3(6), pages 258-265.
    17. Dimitrios Koutmos, 2018. "Interdependencies between CDS spreads in the European Union: Is Greece the black sheep or black swan?," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 266(1), pages 441-498, July.
    18. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan & Tim Krieger, 2018. "Oil Rents Shocks and Inequality in Iran," CESifo Working Paper Series 6876, CESifo.
    19. Apergis, Nicholas & Ewing, Bradley T. & Payne, James E., 2016. "A time series analysis of oil production, rig count and crude oil price: Evidence from six U.S. oil producing regions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 339-349.
    20. Fragiskos Archontakis & Rocco Mosconi, 2021. "Søren Johansen and Katarina Juselius: A Bibliometric Analysis of Citations through Multivariate Bass Models," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-28, August.
    21. Katsuya Ito, 2012. "The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on the Iranian Economy: New evidence," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(3), pages 2246-2254.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rnd:arjebs:v:9:y:2017:i:2:p:215-223. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Muhammad Tayyab (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://ojs.amhinternational.com/index.php/jebs .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.