IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bcp/journl/v6y2022i12p731-741.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Variables in Africa: A Bayesian VAR Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Raymond Osi Alenoghena

    (Raymond Osi Alenoghena)

  • Samuel David Adebisi

    (Raymond Osi Alenoghena)

  • Ayobola Olufolake Charles

    (Raymond Osi Alenoghena)

Abstract

Government spending by African countries has generally been on the rise recently. This study investigates the effect of government spending on macroeconomic variables in 25 African countries from 2002 to 2019. The study utilises the Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BVAR) approach for the analysis. The study results indicate that fiscal policy positively and significantly impacts gross fixed capital formation and broad money. As a follow-up, the effect of fiscal policy is significant and negative on economic growth. Although fiscal policy’s outcome positively affects inflation and trade openness, the effect is insignificant. Also, while the impact of fiscal policy on the industrial production index is negative, the impact is not significant. The study recommends a well-coordinated and further boost to government spending to promote capital investment in these African countries. The policy of a better-managed increase in government expenditure should enhance investment and productivity to correct the negative impact of government expenditure on industrial production. More specifically, the government should spend more on projects with the potential of increasing productivity rather than recurrent and non-productive ventures with the tendency to increase inflationary pressures.

Suggested Citation

  • Raymond Osi Alenoghena & Samuel David Adebisi & Ayobola Olufolake Charles, 2022. "Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Variables in Africa: A Bayesian VAR Approach," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 6(12), pages 731-741, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bcp:journl:v:6:y:2022:i:12:p:731-741
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.rsisinternational.org/journals/ijriss/Digital-Library/volume-6-issue-12/731-741.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.rsisinternational.org/virtual-library/papers/fiscal-policy-and-macroeconomic-variables-in-africa-a-bayesian-var-approach/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Elisha Mavodyo, 2020. "A Revival of Budget Deficit and Economic Growth," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 2020/04, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
    2. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2008. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through And Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 13889, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2010. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(3), pages 763-801, June.
    4. Shamsideen Adewale Yusuff & Abisoye Abolaji, 2020. "The Impact of Budget Deficit on Economic Growth in an Emerging Market: An Application of the ARDL Technique," Asian Development Policy Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 8(4), pages 351-361, December.
    5. Stephen Taiwo Onifade & Savaş Çevik & Savaş Erdoğan & Simplice Asongu & Festus Victor Bekun, 2020. "An empirical retrospect of the impacts of government expenditures on economic growth: new evidence from the Nigerian economy," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 9(1), pages 1-13, December.
    6. Perotti, Roberto, 2005. "Estimating the Effects of Fiscal Policy in OECD Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 4842, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Olivier Biau & Élie Girard, 2005. "Politique budgétaire et dynamique économique en France. L'approche var structurel," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 56(3), pages 755-764.
    8. Kagiso Molefe & Andrew Maredza, 2017. "Budget Deficits and Economic Growth: A Vector Error Correction Modelling of South Africa," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 9(2), pages 215-223.
    9. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
    10. Shamsideen Adewale Yusuff & Abisoye Abolaji, 2020. "The Impact of Budget Deficit on Economic Growth in an Emerging Market: An Application of the ARDL Technique," Asian Development Policy Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 8(4), pages 351-361.
    11. Olivier Biau & Élie Girard, 2005. "Politique budgétaire et dynamique économique en France : l'approche VAR structurel," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 0(3), pages 1-23.
    12. Idowu, Obakemi Funsho & Okiri, Inyang John & Olarewaju, Hassan Ismail, 2020. "Revisiting Government Expenditure and Private Investment Nexus: An ARDL Approach," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 54(1), pages 181-192.
    13. Tshembhani Mackson HLONGWANE & Itumeleng Pleasure MONGALE & Lavisa TALA, 2018. "Analysis of the Impact of Fiscal Policy on Economic Growth in South Africa: VECM Approach," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 10(2), pages 231-238.
    14. Taiwo Akinlo & Olusola Joel Oyeleke, 2018. "Effects of Government Expenditure on Private Investment in Nigerian Economy (1980–2016)," Emerging Economy Studies, International Management Institute, vol. 4(2), pages 147-156, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kasselaki, Maria Th. & Tagkalakis, Athanasios O., 2016. "Fiscal policy and private investment in Greece," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 53-106.
    2. Cassette, Aurélie & Creel, Jérôme & Farvaque, Etienne & Paty, Sonia, 2013. "Governments under influence: Country interactions in discretionary fiscal policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 79-89.
    3. Jérôme Creel & Eric Heyer & Mathieu Plane, 2011. "Petit précis de politique budgétaire par tous les temps," Post-Print hal-03460510, HAL.
    4. Ant Afonso & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2012. "The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(34), pages 4439-4454, December.
    5. Christoph A. Schaltegger & Martin Weder, 2010. "Fiskalpolitik als antizyklisches Instrument? Eine Betrachtung der Schweiz," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 11(2), pages 146-177, May.
    6. Carine Bouthevillain & John Caruana & Cristina Checherita & Jorge Cunha & Esther Gordo & Stephan Haroutunian & Geert Langenus & Amela Hubic & Bernhard Manzke & Javier J. Pérez & Pietro Tommasino, 2009. "Pros and cons of various fiscal measures to stimulate the economy," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue JUL, pages 123-144, July.
    7. Davide Furceri & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2011. "Does Government Spending Crowd Out Private Consumption and Investment?," World Economics, World Economics, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 12(4), pages 153-170, October.
    8. Berger, Johannes & Graf, Nikolaus & Strohner, Ludwig & Schuh, Ulrich, 2014. "Auswirkungen von ausgaben- und einnahmenseitigen Konsolidierungen," Research Papers 2, EcoAustria – Institute for Economic Research.
    9. Sebastian Gechert & Ansgar Rannenberg, 2014. "Are Fiscal Multipliers Regime-Dependent? A Meta Regression Analysis," IMK Working Paper 139-2014, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    10. van der Wielen, Wouter, 2020. "The macroeconomic effects of tax changes: Evidence using real-time data for the European Union," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 302-321.
    11. Jocelyn Boussard & Francisco de Castro & Matteo Salto, 2012. "Fiscal Multipliers and Public Debt Dynamics in Consolidations," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 460, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    12. Székely, István P. & Turrini, Alessandro & Röger, Werner, 2010. "Banking crises, Output Loss and Fiscal Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 7815, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Ignacio Lozano Espitia & Karen Rodríguez, 2009. "Assessing the Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal," Borradores de Economia 5386, Banco de la Republica.
    14. Ignacio Lozano & Karen Rodríguez, 2011. "Assessing the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in Colombia," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 3(3), pages 206-228, August.
    15. Søren Ravn & Morten Spange, 2014. "The Effects of Fiscal Policy in a Small Open Economy with a Fixed Exchange Rate," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 451-476, July.
    16. Hüseyin ŞEN & Ayşe KAYA, 2017. "Mali Konsolidasyon Büyüme ve İstihdam için Bir Çıpa mı, Mali Tuzak mı? Teorik ve Ampirik Literatür Temelli Bir Analiz," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 25(34).
    17. Hernán Rincón & Diego Rodríguez & Jorge Toro & Santiago Téllez, 2017. "FISCO: modelo fiscal para Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 35(83), pages 161-187, June.
    18. Sebastian Gechert, 2015. "What fiscal policy is most effective? A meta-regression analysis," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(3), pages 553-580.
    19. Ryan H. Murphy, 2015. "Unconventional Confidence Bands in the Literature on the Government Spending Multiplier," Econ Journal Watch, Econ Journal Watch, vol. 12(1), pages 72-83, January.
    20. Hollmayr, Josef & Kuckuck, Jan, 2018. "Fiscal multipliers of central, state and local government and of the social security funds in Germany: Evidence of a SVAR," Discussion Papers 28/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bcp:journl:v:6:y:2022:i:12:p:731-741. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Dr. Pawan Verma (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://rsisinternational.org/journals/ijriss/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.