Panel Cointegration and Pooled Mean Group Estimations of Energy-Output Dynamics in South Asia

This study employs the panel cointegration and pooled mean group (PMG) techniques to examine the long run relationships between energy consumption and GDP for 5 South Asian countries from 1981 to 2009. Unit root and panel cointegration tests find a long run relationship between energy consumption and GDP after allowing for country-specific effect. Furthermore, we use the PMG technique to identify the magnitude of this relationship. Our results are consistent with the theory that suggests a role of energy use in GDP. On average, a 1% increase in energy consumption leads to a 0.61% increase in the long run GDP in South Asia from 1981 to 2009. Hence, it is apparent that energy is an important component to maintain the economic activities in these countries. These results have important implications for policy makers of South Asian countries which have experienced magnificent growth performance along with a sharp rise in consumption demand for energy in last few decades.