IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rnd/arjebs/v11y2019i1p129-138.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Fiscal Policy and External Shocks in Nigeria

Author

Listed:
  • Patrick Ologbenla

Abstract

The study assessed the effects of external shocks on fiscal policy in Nigeria. Vector auto-regression VAR estimating technique is adopted to achieve the set objectives of the study. The VAR model comprises of the following variables GDP, oil output, oil price, government revenue, government expenditure, external reserve, exchange rate, fiscal balance, and non-oil export. These variables represent the external shocks, the growth variables, fiscal variables and some other macroeconomic variables. The VAR results show that oil price and non-oil export are the most important external shocks affecting fiscal policy in Nigeria. It was also discovered that public debt shock has no significant impact on government expenditure. In addition, external reserve and exchange rate shocks also have a significant impact on fiscal policy. Finally, government expenditure shock failed to have a significant impact on the GDP. The implication of these results is that the effectiveness of fiscal policy in achieving macroeconomic objectives in Nigeria depends on these identified shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick Ologbenla, 2019. "Fiscal Policy and External Shocks in Nigeria," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 11(1), pages 129-138.
  • Handle: RePEc:rnd:arjebs:v:11:y:2019:i:1:p:129-138
    DOI: 10.22610/jebs.v11i1(J).2754
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ojs.amhinternational.com/index.php/jebs/article/view/2754/1814
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://ojs.amhinternational.com/index.php/jebs/article/view/2754
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22610/jebs.v11i1(J).2754?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Uhlig, Harald, 2005. "What are the effects of monetary policy on output? Results from an agnostic identification procedure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 381-419, March.
    2. Clements, Michael P & Hendry, David F, 1995. "Forecasting in Cointegration Systems," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 127-146, April-Jun.
    3. Easterly, William & Rebelo, Sergio, 1993. "Fiscal policy and economic growth: An empirical investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 417-458, December.
    4. Jouko Kinnunen & Hans Lofgren & Victor Sulla & Dino Merotto, 2012. "External shocks, fiscal policy and income distribution: Alternative scenarios for Moldova," EcoMod2012 4137, EcoMod.
    5. Gylfason, Thorvaldur, 2001. "Natural resources, education, and economic development," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-6), pages 847-859, May.
    6. Robert J. Barro & Xavier Sala-I-Martin, 1992. "Public Finance in Models of Economic Growth," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 59(4), pages 645-661.
    7. Elbourne, Adam, 2008. "The UK housing market and the monetary policy transmission mechanism: An SVAR approach," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 65-87, March.
    8. Harold Ngalawa & Nicola Viegi, 2011. "Dynamic Effects Of Monetary Policy Shocks In Malawi," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 79(3), pages 224-250, September.
    9. Gert Peersman & Frank Smets, 2005. "The Industry Effects of Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(503), pages 319-342, April.
    10. repec:aer:wpaper:170 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Ramos Francia Manuel & Cuadra Gabriel & Capistrán Carlos, 2011. "Policy Response to External Shocks: Lessons from the Crisis," Working Papers 2011-14, Banco de México.
    12. Mahmud, Hassan, 2009. "Oil Price Shocks and Monetary Policy Aggregates in Nigeria: A Structural VAR Approach," MPRA Paper 25908, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Adebayo Augustine Kutu & Harold Ngalawa, 2016. "Monetary Policy Shocks And Industrial Output In Brics Countries," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 66(3), pages 3-24, July-Sept.
    2. Joseph Olorunfemi Akande & Farai Kwenda, 2017. "P-SVAR Analysis of Stability in Sub-Saharan Africa Commercial Banks," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 67(3), pages 49-78, july-Sept.
    3. Omolade Adeleke & Nwosa Philip & Ngalawa Harold, 2019. "Monetary Transmission Channel, Oil Price Shock and the Manufacturing Sector in Nigeria," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, Sciendo, vol. 19(1), pages 89-113, June.
    4. Cooray, Arusha, 2011. "The role of the government in financial sector development," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 928-938, May.
    5. Urrunaga, Roberto & Aparicio, Carlos, 2012. "Infrastructure and economic growth in Peru," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), August.
    6. Åsa Johansson, 2016. "Public Finance, Economic Growth and Inequality: A Survey of the Evidence," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1346, OECD Publishing.
    7. van Tuijl, Martin A. & de Groof, Robert J. & Kolnaar, Ad H. J., 1997. "Fiscal policy and public capital in interdependent economics," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 279-300, April.
    8. J. Rodrigo Fuentes S. & Verónica Mies M., 2005. "Looking at Chile’s Economic Dvelopment From an International Perspective," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 8(1), pages 7-33, April.
    9. Martha Elena Delgado-Rojas & Hernán Rincón-Castro, 2017. "Incertidumbre acerca de la política fiscal y ciclo económico," Borradores de Economia 1008, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    10. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:8:y:2007:i:4:p:1-7 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Tarhan, Simge, 2008. "Public Investment and Corruption in an Endogenous Growth Model," MPRA Paper 21319, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Mar 2010.
    12. Anttila, Juho, 2018. "Measuring the effects of conventional and unconventional monetary policy in the euro area," Research Discussion Papers 12/2018, Bank of Finland.
    13. Pierre-Richard Agénor, 2008. "Fiscal policy and endogenous growth with public infrastructure," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 60(1), pages 57-87, January.
    14. Michał Konopczyński, 2018. "How Taxes, Education and Public Capital Influence Economic Growth in Poland," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 12(3), September.
    15. Keisuke Okada & Sovannroeun Samreth, 2021. "Oil bonanza and the composition of government expenditure," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 23-46, March.
    16. Gokcen Yilmaz, 2018. "Composition of public investment and economic growth: evidence from Turkish provinces, 1975-2001," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 42(2), pages 187-214.
    17. Mohammed Daher Alshammary & Norlin Khalid & Zulkefly Abdul Karim & Riayati Ahmad, 2022. "Government expenditures and economic growth in the MENA region: A dynamic heterogeneous panel estimation," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 3287-3299, July.
    18. Norman Loayza & Pablo Fajnzylber & César Calderón, 2005. "Economic Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean : Stylized Facts, Explanations, and Forecasts," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 7315.
    19. Wai‐Hong Ho & Yong Wang, 2005. "Public capital, asymmetric information, and economic growth," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(1), pages 57-80, February.
    20. Dimitrios Paparas & Christian Richter, 2015. "Fiscal policy and economic growth: Empirical evidence from the European Union," Working Papers 2015.06, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    21. Óscar Bajo Rubio & Carmen Díaz Roldán & M.a Dolores Montávez Garcés, "undated". "Fiscal Policy And Growth Revisited: The Case Of The Spanish Regions," Working Papers 19-02 Classification-JEL , Instituto de Estudios Fiscales.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rnd:arjebs:v:11:y:2019:i:1:p:129-138. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Muhammad Tayyab (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://ojs.amhinternational.com/index.php/jebs .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.