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A Markov Switching Vector Error Correction Model on Oil Price and Gold Price Effect on Stock Market Returns

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  • Seuk Wai Phoong
  • Siok Kun Sek

Abstract

Stock market index represent a country growth and always as an interest for economist and statisticians. In this paper, the effect of oil price and gold price on stock market index on Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Indonesia are investigated and a two-regime Markov Switching Vector Error Correction model is used to examine the nonlinear properties model. Moreover, a two regime mean adjusted Markov Switching Vector Error Correction model is used in the study to capture the filtered and smoothed probabilities of the time series sequence in the economic model. Results found that the oil price and gold price affect the movement of the Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Indonesia stock market index and there is an asymmetric cycle since 97% of the total sample size is recorded in the growth state.

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  • Seuk Wai Phoong & Siok Kun Sek, 2013. "A Markov Switching Vector Error Correction Model on Oil Price and Gold Price Effect on Stock Market Returns," Information Management and Business Review, AMH International, vol. 5(7), pages 331-336.
    • Handle: RePEc:rnd:arimbr:v:5:y:2013:i:7:p:331-336
    DOI: 10.22610/imbr.v5i7.1059
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Sulaeman Rahman Nidar, 2017. "The Influence of Global Stock Index and the Economic Indicators of Stock Investment Decision by Foreign Investors in the Indonesian Stock Exchange," GATR Journals jfbr121, Global Academy of Training and Research (GATR) Enterprise.
    2. Jean Marcelin B. Brou & Mbodja Mougoué & Eugene Kouassi & Kebaabetswe Thulaganyo & Benjamin K. Acquah, 2022. "Effects of diamond price volatility on stock returns: Evidence from a developing economy," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 1025-1043, January.
    3. Atul Shiva & Monica Sethi, 2015. "Understanding Dynamic Relationship among Gold Price, Exchange Rate and Stock Markets: Evidence in Indian Context," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 16(5_suppl), pages 93-111, October.
    4. Li, Leon, 2022. "The dynamic interrelations of oil-equity implied volatility indexes under low and high volatility-of-volatility risk," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    5. Vesna Bucevska & Borjan Gjelevski & Lea Matevska, 2023. "Oil Prices And Their Long-Term Relationship With Macroeconomic And Financial Indicators," Economic Review: Journal of Economics and Business, University of Tuzla, Faculty of Economics, vol. 21(1), pages 3-24, May.

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