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Research on the Non-linear Impact of China's Provincial Import and Export Trade on Carbon Emissions based on PSTR Model

Author

Listed:
  • Yanfang LYU

    (School of Statistics, Huaqiao University)

  • Mengfan LI

    (School of Statistics, Huaqiao University)

  • Dong WANG

    (School of Business, Minnan Normal University)

Abstract

With the coming of the trend of global economic integration, the conflict between trade openness and environmental issues is increasingly intensifying. As a result of global warming and frequent smog, the government and the public are paying unprecedented attention to environmental prevention and governance. It has been particularly signifi-cant to coordinate the balance between trade and environment. Based on the provincial panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2004 to 2016, the non-linear impact of import and export trade on carbon emissions, considering the influence of economic develop-ment level on carbon emission effect of China's trade, is analyzed by using the panel smooth transition regression model (PSTR). The results show that the export trade and import trade have double threshold characteristics on carbon dioxide emissions with economic development level as the transfer variable. The positive promotion effect of export trade on China's carbon dioxide emissions decreases with the improvement of economic development level. The promotion effect of import trade volume on carbon di-oxide emissions shows a non-linear characteristic of first weakening and then slightly strengthening with the improvement of economic level.

Suggested Citation

  • Yanfang LYU & Mengfan LI & Dong WANG, 2023. "Research on the Non-linear Impact of China's Provincial Import and Export Trade on Carbon Emissions based on PSTR Model," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 46-63, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2023:i:1:p:46-63
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gene M. Grossman & Alan B. Krueger, 1995. "Economic Growth and the Environment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(2), pages 353-377.
    2. Ang, James B., 2009. "CO2 emissions, research and technology transfer in China," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(10), pages 2658-2665, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Huan YAN & Xiaojing LI & Shuang MENG, 2023. "Global Value Chain Participation and Sustainable Growth: Evidence from China," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 5-20, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    import and export trade; carbon emission; PSTR model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F18 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Environment
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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