IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rjr/romjef/vy2023i1p46-63.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Research on the Non-linear Impact of China's Provincial Import and Export Trade on Carbon Emissions based on PSTR Model

Author

Listed:
  • Yanfang LYU

    (School of Statistics, Huaqiao University)

  • Mengfan LI

    (School of Statistics, Huaqiao University)

  • Dong WANG

    (School of Business, Minnan Normal University)

Abstract

With the coming of the trend of global economic integration, the conflict between trade openness and environmental issues is increasingly intensifying. As a result of global warming and frequent smog, the government and the public are paying unprecedented attention to environmental prevention and governance. It has been particularly signifi-cant to coordinate the balance between trade and environment. Based on the provincial panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2004 to 2016, the non-linear impact of import and export trade on carbon emissions, considering the influence of economic develop-ment level on carbon emission effect of China's trade, is analyzed by using the panel smooth transition regression model (PSTR). The results show that the export trade and import trade have double threshold characteristics on carbon dioxide emissions with economic development level as the transfer variable. The positive promotion effect of export trade on China's carbon dioxide emissions decreases with the improvement of economic development level. The promotion effect of import trade volume on carbon di-oxide emissions shows a non-linear characteristic of first weakening and then slightly strengthening with the improvement of economic level.

Suggested Citation

  • Yanfang LYU & Mengfan LI & Dong WANG, 2023. "Research on the Non-linear Impact of China's Provincial Import and Export Trade on Carbon Emissions based on PSTR Model," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 46-63, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2023:i:1:p:46-63
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ipe.ro/rjef/rjef1_2023/rjef1_2023p46-63.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gene M. Grossman & Alan B. Krueger, 1995. "Economic Growth and the Environment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(2), pages 353-377.
    2. Ang, James B., 2009. "CO2 emissions, research and technology transfer in China," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(10), pages 2658-2665, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Huan YAN & Xiaojing LI & Shuang MENG, 2023. "Global Value Chain Participation and Sustainable Growth: Evidence from China," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 5-20, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhou, Xiaoyan & Zhang, Jie & Li, Junpeng, 2013. "Industrial structural transformation and carbon dioxide emissions in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 43-51.
    2. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Nasreen, Samia & Ahmed, Khalid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2017. "Trade openness–carbon emissions nexus: The importance of turning points of trade openness for country panels," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 221-232.
    3. Nepal, Rabindra & Paija, Nirash, 2019. "A multivariate time series analysis of energy consumption, real output and pollutant emissions in a developing economy: New evidence from Nepal," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 164-173.
    4. Hao, Yu & Zhang, Zong-Yong & Liao, Hua & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2015. "China’s farewell to coal: A forecast of coal consumption through 2020," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 444-455.
    5. Ben Jebli, Mehdi & Ben Youssef, Slim, 2015. "The environmental Kuznets curve, economic growth, renewable and non-renewable energy, and trade in Tunisia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 173-185.
    6. Azam, Muhammad & Khan, Abdul Qayyum & Zaman, Khalid & Ahmad, Mehboob, 2015. "Factors determining energy consumption: Evidence from Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1123-1131.
    7. Farhani, Sahbi & Shahbaz, Muhammad & AROURI, Mohamed El Hedi, 2013. "Panel analysis of CO2 emissions, GDP, energy consumption, trade openness and urbanization for MENA countries," MPRA Paper 49258, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 20 Aug 2013.
    8. Roy, Jayjit, 2017. "On the environmental consequences of intra-industry trade," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 50-67.
    9. Mohammed Touitou & Raquel Langarita, 2021. "Environmental Kuznets Curve for Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Economic Growth in Algeria," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 15(4), pages 418-432, November.
    10. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-449 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Hiroki Iwata & Keisuke Okada & Sovannroeun Samreth, 2012. "Empirical study on the determinants of CO 2 emissions: evidence from OECD countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(27), pages 3513-3519, September.
    12. Jingxia Chai & Yu Hao & Haitao Wu & Yuemiao Yang, 2021. "Do constraints created by economic growth targets benefit sustainable development? Evidence from China," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(8), pages 4188-4205, December.
    13. Duc Khuong Nguyen & Benoît Sévi & Bo Sjö & Gazi Salah Uddin, 2017. "The role of trade openness and investment in examining the energy-growth-pollution nexus: empirical evidence for China and India," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(40), pages 4083-4098, August.
    14. Li, Tingting & Wang, Yong & Zhao, Dingtao, 2016. "Environmental Kuznets Curve in China: New evidence from dynamic panel analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 138-147.
    15. Song, Kaiyi & Dai, Wei & Bian, Yuanchao, 2023. "Trade policy uncertainty and environmental performance of Chinese enterprises," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 73-85.
    16. Wenwen Li & Wenping Wang & Yu Wang & Yingbo Qin, 2017. "Industrial structure, technological progress and CO2 emissions in China: Analysis based on the STIRPAT framework," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 88(3), pages 1545-1564, September.
    17. Sahbi Farhani & Sana Mrizak & Anissa Chaibi & Christophe Rault, 2014. "The Environmental Kuznets Curve and Sustainability: A Panel Data Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 4787, CESifo.
    18. Kivyiro, Pendo & Arminen, Heli, 2014. "Carbon dioxide emissions, energy consumption, economic growth, and foreign direct investment: Causality analysis for Sub-Saharan Africa," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 595-606.
    19. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Gloria Claudio-Quiroga & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2019. "CO2 Emissions and GDP: Evidence from China," CESifo Working Paper Series 7881, CESifo.
    20. Jalil, Abdul & Feridun, Mete, 2011. "The impact of growth, energy and financial development on the environment in China: A cointegration analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 284-291, March.
    21. Farhani, Sahbi & Chaibi, Anissa & Rault, Christophe, 2014. "CO2 emissions, output, energy consumption, and trade in Tunisia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 426-434.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    import and export trade; carbon emission; PSTR model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F18 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Environment
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2023:i:1:p:46-63. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Corina Saman (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ipacaro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.