IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ris/sphecs/0280.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Effect Of Foreign Exchange Rate Fluctuations On Nigerian Economy

Author

Listed:
  • UFOEZE, Lawrence Olisaemeka

    (1Department of Banking and Finance, Chukwuemeka Odumegwu Ojukwu University, Anambra State)

Abstract

This study investigated the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on Nigerian economy. The fixed and floating exchange eras were compared to know the exchange rate system in which the economy has fairly better. The time period covered was 1970 to 2012. The study employed the ordinary least square (OLS) multiple regression technique for the analysis. The coefficient of determination (R2), F-test, t-test, beta and Durbin-Watson were used in the interpretation of the results. The resulted revealed that about 85% of the changes in macroeconomic indicators are explained in the fixed exchange era. In the floating exchange era, 99% was explained while the whole periods has 73% explanatory power, hence the floating exchange era (1986 to date) is more effective in explaining economic trends in Nigeria. Also, exchange rate has significant positive effect on GDP during the fixed exchange rate era and negative effect during the eras floating and all-time; inflation has insignificant negative effect on GDP during the fixed exchange era; significant effect in floating era and significant negative effect in the all-time period; money supply has insignificant negative effect on GDP during the fixed exchange era; and significant positive effect during the floating and all-time period; and oil revenue has significant positive effect on the GDP in all the exchange rate regimes (floating, fixed and all-time) in Nigeria. The study thus concludes that exchange rate movement is a good indicator for monitoring Nigerian economic growth. So far, exchange rate has always been a key economic indicator for Nigeria. The floating exchange period has outperformed the fixed exchange rate in terms of contribution inflation, money supply and oil revenue to economic growth. This indicates that the floating exchange rate has been a better economic regime for sustainable economic growth in Nigeria

Suggested Citation

  • UFOEZE, Lawrence Olisaemeka, 2018. "Effect Of Foreign Exchange Rate Fluctuations On Nigerian Economy," Annals of Spiru Haret University, Economic Series, Universitatea Spiru Haret, vol. 9(1), pages 105-122.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:sphecs:0280
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://anale.spiruharet.ro/index.php/economics/article/view/1814/pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:cto:journl:v:21:y:2001:i:1:p:13-18 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Eichengreen, Barry & Irwin, Douglas A., 1995. "Trade blocs, currency blocs and the reorientation of world trade in the 1930s," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1-2), pages 1-24, February.
    3. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2003. "Experience of and Lessons from Exchange Rate Regime in Emerging Economies," NBER Working Papers 10032, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Barro, Robert J. & Gordon, David B., 1983. "Rules, discretion and reputation in a model of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 101-121.
    5. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408.
    6. Peter J. Montiel & Jonathan D. Ostry, 1991. "Macroeconomic Implications of Real Exchange Rate Targeting in Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(4), pages 872-900, December.
    7. Berg, Andrew & Borensztein, Eduardo & Mauro, Paolo, 2002. "An evaluation of monetary regime options for Latin America," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 213-235, December.
    8. Borensztein, Eduardo & Lee, Jong-Wha, 2002. "Financial crisis and credit crunch in Korea: evidence from firm-level data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 853-875, May.
    9. Aliyu, Shehu Usman Rano, 2009. "Impact of Oil Price Shock and Exchange Rate Volatility on Economic Growth in Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation," MPRA Paper 16319, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Jun 2009.
    10. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2003. "Synchronised Business Cycles in East Asia and Fluctuations in the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(8), pages 1067-1088, August.
    11. Magda Kandil & Ida Aghdas Mirzaie, 2008. "Comparative Analysis Of Exchange Rate Appreciation And Aggregate Economic Activity: Theory And Evidence From Middle Eastern Countries," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(1), pages 45-96, January.
    12. Owoeye Taiwo & Ogunmakin Adeduro Adesola, 2013. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Bank Performance in Nigeria," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 3(2), pages 178-185.
    13. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Fajnzylber, Eduardo & Schmukler, Sergio L. & Serven, Luis, 2001. "Verifying exchange rate regimes," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 351-386, December.
    14. Egwaikhide, F.O., 1999. "Determinants of Imports in Nigeria: a Dynamic Specification," Papers 91, African Economic Research Consortium.
    15. Mr. Andrew Berg & Mr. Paolo Mauro & Mr. Michael Mussa & Mr. Alexander K. Swoboda & Mr. Esteban Jadresic & Mr. Paul R Masson, 2000. "Exchange Rate Regimes in an Increasingly Integrated World Economy," IMF Occasional Papers 2000/011, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Magda Kandil, 2004. "Exchange Rate Fluctuations And Economic Activity In Developing Countries: Theory And Evidence," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 29(1), pages 85-108, June.
    17. Ogunleye, Eric Kehinde, 2008. "Natural resource abundance in Nigeria: From dependence to development," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 168-174, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Innocent U Duru & Millicent Adanne Eze & Abubakar Sadiq Saleh & Benedict I Uzoechina & Gabriel O Ebenyi & Ekechi Chukwuka, 2022. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports: The Nigerian Scenario," Asian Journal of Empirical Research, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 12(1), pages 11-28.
    2. Okosu, Napoleon David, 2022. "Assessing Exchange Rate Volatility and Economic Growth in Nigeria: A Garch Model Approach," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 6(7), pages 152-163, July.
    3. Ayooluwade Ebiwonjumi & Retius Chifurira & Knowledge Chinhamu, 2022. "An Efficient Estimation Technique for investigating Economic Growth and its Determinants for Nigeria in the Presence of Multicollinearity," International Journal of Finance & Banking Studies, Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 11(1), pages 107-119, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Muhammad Naveed TAHIR & Faran ALI & Dawood MAMOON, 2016. "Appropriate Exchange Rate Regime for Economic Structure of Pakistan," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 629-641, December.
    2. Penu, Samuel Lucky & Nkanbia-Davies, Lilian Okorite, 2017. "Implications of Exchange Rate Fluctuation and Economic Performance: The Nigerian Experience," International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, vol. 3(10), pages 206-217, 10-2017.
    3. Mashkoor, Asim & Ahmed, Ovais & Herani, Dr. Gobin, 2015. "The relationship between Foreign Currency trading and Economic Development: A case Study of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 64482, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Hiroya Akiba & Yukihiro Iida & Yoshihiro Kitamura, 2009. "The optimal exchange rate regime for a small country," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 315-343, October.
    5. Feryel Ouerghi, 2013. "Global Financial Crisis: Did Exchange Rate Politics Help Emerging Countries To Be More Resilient," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 3(4), pages 949-963.
    6. Jeffrey Frankel, 2021. "Systematic Managed Floating," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Steven J Davis & Edward S Robinson & Bernard Yeung (ed.), THE ASIAN MONETARY POLICY FORUM Insights for Central Banking, chapter 5, pages 160-221, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Chrysost Bangake & Jean-Baptiste Desquilbet & Nabil Jedlane, 2006. "Régimes de change pour les petits pays," Post-Print halshs-00225016, HAL.
    8. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2004. "The Return to Soft Dollar Pegging in East Asia: Mitigating Conflicted Virtue," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 169-201, July.
    9. A. Bénassy-Quéré & B. Cœuré, 2002. "The Survival of Intermediate Exchange rate Regimes," THEMA Working Papers 2002-11, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    10. Mr. Helmut Wagner, 2001. "Implications of Globalization for Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 2001/184, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2006. "The East Asian Dollar Standard, Fear of Floating, and Original Sin," Chapters, in: Volbert Alexander & Hans-Helmut Kotz (ed.), Global Divergence in Trade, Money and Policy, chapter 3, pages 45-71, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    12. Mohd Hussain Kunroo, 2015. "Theory of Optimum Currency Areas," Review of Market Integration, India Development Foundation, vol. 7(2), pages 87-116, August.
    13. George S. Tavlas, 2009. "Optimum‐Currency‐Area Paradoxes," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 536-551, August.
    14. Artus P., 2001. "What Exchange - Rate System For Emerging Countries?," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1-2), pages 27-60, January -.
    15. J.M.C. Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2010. "Currency Unions in Prospect and Retrospect," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 2(1), pages 51-74, September.
    16. Glick, R., 2000. "Fixed or Floating: Is It Still Possible to Manage in the Middle?," Papers pb00-02, Economisch Institut voor het Midden en Kleinbedrijf-.
    17. Helmut Wagner, 2005. "Globalization and financial instability: Challenges for exchange rate and monetary policy," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 32(7), pages 616-638, July.
    18. Frommel, Michael & Schobert, Franziska, 2006. "Exchange rate regimes in Central and East European countries: Deeds vs. words," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 467-483, September.
    19. George S. Tavlas, 2003. "The Economics of Exchange‐Rate Regimes: A Review Essay," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(8), pages 1215-1246, August.
    20. Mr. Aasim M. Husain & Mr. Ashoka Mody & Nienke Oomes & Mr. Robin Brooks & Mr. Kenneth Rogoff, 2003. "Evolution and Performance of Exchange Rate Regimes," IMF Working Papers 2003/243, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    exchange rate fluctuation; inflation; money supply; oil revenue; gross domestic product;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:sphecs:0280. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Aurelian A BONDREA or Constantin Mecu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ffuspro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.