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Investigation of optimal inflation targets for 15 major oil exporting Sub-Saharan African countries: A panel threshold estimation

Author

Listed:
  • Abdullahi, Idris

    (Federal University Dutse, Dutse, Nigeria)

  • Chua, Soo

    (Universiti Sains Malaysia)

  • Mohd, Saidatulakmal

    (Universiti Sains Malaysia)

Abstract

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the optimal inflation targets for an appropriate exchange rate policy in 15 major oil exporting countries in Sub-Saharan African (SSA). Design/methodology/approach – Dynamic heterogeneous panel threshold techniques are used via threshold-effect test and threshold regression. This procedure is achieved through a grid search and bootstrapping replications method to stimulate the asymptotic distribution of the likelihood ratio test of the null hypothesis on no-threshold as against the alternative hypothesis. The p-values validate the threshold estimates. Findings – Findings revealed that the optimal inflation target has a turning point and its impact on the real exchange rate is up to a threshold level of 14.47 per cent. Furthermore, the inflation rate above the threshold level overwhelmingly revealed its effect on real exchange regimes. Practical implications – Inflation targeting beyond the threshold level would have serious implications on the monetary policy. Originality/value – To the best of the knowledge, this is the first study to look at optimal inflation targets for 15 major oil exporting countries in general and SSA countries in particular. The findings provide a critical analysis of an inflation regime for a typical oil-producing country that oil exports being their source of revenue.

Suggested Citation

  • Abdullahi, Idris & Chua, Soo & Mohd, Saidatulakmal, 2020. "Investigation of optimal inflation targets for 15 major oil exporting Sub-Saharan African countries: A panel threshold estimation," Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, Universidad ESAN, vol. 25(49), pages 45-60.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:joefas:0156
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Abdulqadir, Idris A. & Asongu, Simplice A., 2022. "The asymmetric effect of internet access on economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 44-61.
    2. Idris Abdullahi Abdulqadir, 2022. "The nonlinearity of exchange rate pass‐through on currency invoice: A quantile, generalized method of moments and threshold effect‐test from sub‐Sahara African economies," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 1473-1494, January.
    3. Achua, Joseph Kwaghkor & Yusuf, Mariam & Wakdok, Samuel Stephen, 2022. "Nonlinear public debt and resource rent nexus in highly indebted resource-rich sub-Saharan economies: Evidence from Nigeria," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Panel threshold; Real exchange rate; Leverage; Optimal inflation; Sub-Saharan Africa; Dynamic heterogenous panel threshold regression; Optimal inflation targeting; Real exchange rates;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C24 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models; Threshold Regression Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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