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Will the Real “Natural Trading Partner” Please Stand Up?

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  • Schiff, Maurice

    (World Bank)

Abstract

Adherents to the “natural trading partner” hypothesis argue that forming a PTA is more likely to raise welfare if member countries already trade disproportionately with each other. Opponents of the hypothesis claim that the opposite is true: welfare is likely to be higher if member countries trade less with each other. This paper shows that neither analysis is correct and that the “natural trading partner” hypothesis can be rescued if it is redefined in terms of complementarity or substitutability rather than in terms of volume of trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Schiff, Maurice, 2001. "Will the Real “Natural Trading Partner” Please Stand Up?," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 16, pages 245-261.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:integr:0163
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Panagariya, A., 1997. "Preferential trading and the myth of natural trading partners," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 471-489, December.
    2. Martin Richardson, 2017. "Why a Free Trade Area? The Tariff also Rises," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Dimensions of Trade Policy, chapter 6, pages 129-152, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
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    4. Olarreaga, Marcelo & Soloaga, Isidro, 1998. "Endogenous Tariff Formation: The Case of Mercosur," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 12(2), pages 297-320, May.
    5. Cadot, Olivier & de Melo, Jaime & Olarraga, Marcelo, 1999. "Regional Integration and Lobbying for Tariffs against Nonmembers," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 40(3), pages 635-657, August.
    6. Arvind Panagariya & Jagdish Bhagwati, 1996. "The Economics of Preferential Trade Agreements," Books, American Enterprise Institute, number 51856, September.
    7. Schiff, Maurice, 1997. "Small is Beautiful: Preferential Trade Agreements and the Impact of Country Size, Market Share, and Smuggling," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 12, pages 359-387.
    8. Schiff, Maurice, 1996. "Small is beautiful : preferential trade agreements and the impact of country size, market share, efficiency, and trade policy," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1668, The World Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Islam, Sulequl, 2003. "Expansions of the European Union and the NAFTA: Implications for New and Non-Member countries," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 3(2).
    2. Winters, L. Alan, 2000. "Regionalism and Multilateralism in the Twenty-First Century," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 2188, Inter-American Development Bank.
    3. L. Alan Winters, 2000. "Regionalism and Multilateralism in the Twenty-First Century," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 8749, Inter-American Development Bank.
    4. Rym Ayadi & Luc De Wulf & Moez El Elj & Michael Gasiorek & Ahmed Ghoneim & Javier Lopez Gonzalez & Selen Guerin & Peter Holmes & Hammad Kassal & Maryla Maliszewska & Mahmut Tekce, 2009. "Economic Integration in the Euro-Mediterranean Region," CASE Network Reports 0089, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    5. Troy Lorde & Antonio Alleyne & Roger Hosein & Mu Yifei, 2020. "Should the Caribbean Look to the East? An Assessment of Caribbean Export Potential," The International Trade Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1), pages 136-150, January.
    6. Ayuso-Díaz, Alejandro, 2022. "Natural trading partners versus empires in East and Southeast Asia regional integration (1840-1938)," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    7. Ayoki, Milton, 2019. "Are the Gulf States poised to become Uganda’s No. 1 trading partners? Emerging trends and imperatives," MPRA Paper 93646, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. World Bank, 2006. "Is There a New Vision for Maghreb Economic Integation? Volume 2. Annex," World Bank Publications - Reports 19624, The World Bank Group.
    9. Khadan, Jeetendra & Hosein, Roger, 2014. "Trade, Economic and Welfare impacts of the CARICOM-Canada Free Trade Agreement," MPRA Paper 54836, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Khadan, Jeetendra & Hosein, Roger, 2013. "New Empirical Insights into the “Natural Trading Partner” Hypothesis for CARICOM Countries," MPRA Paper 50493, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Khadan, Jeetendra & Hosein, Roger, 2014. "Trade, Economic and Welfare impacts of the CARICOM-Canada Free Trade Agreement," MPRA Paper 54836, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Maur, Jean-Christophe, 2008. "Regionalism and trade facilitation : a primer," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4464, The World Bank.
    13. Kaminski, Bartlomiej & de la Rocha, Manuel, 2003. "Stabilization and association process in the Banlkans : integration options and their assessment," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3108, The World Bank.
    14. Maurice Schiff & Yanling Wang, 2007. "North-South technology diffusion, regional integration, and the dynamics of the “natural trading partners” hypothesis," Revue d’économie du développement, De Boeck Université, vol. 15(5), pages 69-84.
    15. Schiff, Maurice & Wang, Yanling, 2009. "The Regional Dimension of North-South Trade-Related R&D Spillovers," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4826, The World Bank.
    16. Vaqar Ahmed & Samavia Batool, 2017. "India-Pakistan Trade: Perspectives from the Automobile Sector in Pakistan," Working Papers id:12263, eSocialSciences.
    17. Shamim Shakur & Chris Nees, 2011. "An application of the natural trading partner hypothesis to New Zealand- ASEAN trade," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(4), pages 3077-3088.
    18. Ng, Francis & Yeats, Alexander, 2003. "Major trade trends in East Asia : what are their implications for regional cooperation and growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3084, The World Bank.
    19. Ramirez, Andres & Kwok, Chuck C.Y., 2010. "Settling the debate on multinational capital structure using the CEPR measure," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 20(4-5), pages 251-271, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Regional Integration; Partner Relations with the Rest of the World; Choice of Partner;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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