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An application of the natural trading partner hypothesis to New Zealand- ASEAN trade

Author

Listed:
  • Shamim Shakur

    (Massey University)

  • Chris Nees

    (New Zealand Treasury)

Abstract

The agreement establishing the ASEAN, Australia and New Zealand Free Trade Area (AANZFTA) entered into force in 2010. Full economic impacts of the agreement will not be known until 2020 when 99% of existing tariffs will be phased out in major markets among signatory nations. Using pre-agreement data, this research applies the natural trading partner hypothesis to make an ex-ante assessment of the agreement from New Zealand's perspective. Estimates of key indices show that the results are mixed and the overall welfare gains to New Zealand, if any, are likely to be small.

Suggested Citation

  • Shamim Shakur & Chris Nees, 2011. "An application of the natural trading partner hypothesis to New Zealand- ASEAN trade," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(4), pages 3077-3088.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-11-00676
    as

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    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2011/Volume31/EB-11-V31-I4-P279.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yeats, Alexander J., 1998. "What can be expected from African regional trade arrangements? some empirical evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2004, The World Bank.
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    3. Schiff, Maurice, 2001. "Will the Real “Natural Trading Partner” Please Stand Up?," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 16, pages 245-261.
    4. repec:bla:ecorec:v:45:y:1969:i:111:p:321-42 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Arvind Panagariya & Jagdish Bhagwati, 1996. "The Economics of Preferential Trade Agreements," Books, American Enterprise Institute, number 51856, September.
    6. Pitigala, Nihal, 2005. "What does regional trade in South Asia reveal about future trade integration? Some empirical evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3497, The World Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Khadan, Jeetendra & Hosein, Roger, 2013. "New Empirical Insights into the “Natural Trading Partner” Hypothesis for CARICOM Countries," MPRA Paper 50493, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Natural trading partner; ASEAN; New Zealand; Free trade agreement;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade

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