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Can High Reserves Offset Weak Fundamentals? A Simple Model of Precautionary Demand for Reserves

Author

Listed:
  • Li, Jie

    (Chinese Academy of Finance and Development, The Central University of Finance and Economics)

  • Rajan, Ramkishen S.

    (School of Public Policy, George Mason University)

Abstract

Apart from exchange rate objectives which have resulted in reserve accumulation as a side effect, Asian countries have chosen explicitly to build up reserves for precautionary motives. This paper explores the issue of optimal precautionary demand for reserves by a central bank within a context of a simple analytical model. The model suggests that, in general, high reserve can help offset weak fundamentals. However, if fundamentals are suffi ciently weak no level of reserves will be able to offset the weak fundamentals.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Jie & Rajan, Ramkishen S., 2006. "Can High Reserves Offset Weak Fundamentals? A Simple Model of Precautionary Demand for Reserves," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 59(3), pages 317-328.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:ecoint:0078
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kletzer, Kenneth & Spiegel, Mark M., 2004. "Sterilization costs and exchange rate targeting," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 897-915, October.
    2. Jung Sik Kim & Jie Li & Ramkishen S. Rajan & Ozan Sula & Thomas D. Willett, 2007. "Reserve Adequacy In Asia Revisited: New Benchmarks Based On The Size And Composition Of Capital Flow," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 23, pages 131-158.
    3. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Aaron Tornell & Andrés Velasco, 1996. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: The Lessons from 1995," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1), pages 147-216.
    4. Aizenman, Joshua & Marion, Nancy, 2003. "The high demand for international reserves in the Far East: What is going on?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 370-400, September.
    5. Aizenman, Joshua & Lee, Yeonho & Rhee, Youngseop, 2007. "International reserves management and capital mobility in a volatile world: Policy considerations and a case study of Korea," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1-15, March.
    6. Mr. M. Nowak & Mr. Ketil Hviding & Mr. Luca A Ricci, 2004. "Can Higher Reserves Help Reduce Exchange Rate Volatility?," IMF Working Papers 2004/189, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Thomas D. Willett & Ekniti Nitithanprapas & Isriya Nitithanprapas & Sunil Rongala, 2004. "The Asian Crises Reexamined," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 3(3), pages 32-87.
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    9. Maurice Obstfeld, 1994. "The Logic of Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 4640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Mr. Christian B. Mulder & Mr. Matthieu Bussière, 1999. "External Vulnerability in Emerging Market Economies: How High Liquidity Can Offset Weak Fundamentals and the Effects of Contagion," IMF Working Papers 1999/088, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Xingwang Qian & Andreas Steiner, 2014. "International Reserves and the Composition of Foreign Equity Investment," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 379-409, May.
    2. Qian, Xingwang & Steiner, Andreas, 2017. "International reserves and the maturity of external debt," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PB), pages 399-418.
    3. Diego Bastourre & Jorge Carrera & Javier Ibarlucia, 2009. "What is Driving Reserve Accumulation? A Dynamic Panel Data Approach," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(4), pages 861-877, September.
    4. Leong Fee Wan & Yen Li Chee, 2009. "Macroeconomic considerations in regional reserve pooling," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(14), pages 1143-1157.
    5. Cavoli, Tony & Rajan, Ramkishen S., 2009. "Managing Risks in a Volatile Environment: The Capital Inflows Problem in Asia," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 62(3), pages 325-340.
    6. Ben Hassine Khalladi, hela, 2015. "Financial Crisis Management in Emerging Countries: Optimal Level of International Reserves and Ex Ante Conditions for an International Lender of Last Resort Intervention," MPRA Paper 96151, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Jie Li & Alice Ouyang, 2011. "Currency crises: can high reserves offset vulnerable fundamentals?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(16), pages 2055-2069.
    8. Mendoza, Ronald U., 2010. "Was the Asian crisis a wake-up call?: Foreign reserves as self-protection," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1-19, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crisis Management; Crisis Prevention; Precautionary Motive; Reserves;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

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