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Estimation of Long-run Demand for Money: An Application of Long-run Structural Modelling to Saudi Arabia

Author

Listed:
  • Masih, Mansur

    (Department of Finance & Economics, King Fahd University of Petroleum & Minerals)

  • Algahtani, Ibrahim

    (Department of Finance & Economics, King Fahd University of Petroleum & Minerals)

Abstract

Using a portfolio balance approach, this paper makes an initial attempt to examine the importance of international factors, such as foreign interest rate and nominal effective exchange rate, on the stability of long-run money demand function in an open developing economy with free capital movement. Saudi Arabia is taken as a case study over the period (1986-2004). The method applied is the ‘Long Run Structural Modelling’ (LRSM) (Pesaran and Shin, Econometric Reviews, 2002) which has tried to address the atheoretical nature of a lot of conventional cointegrating estimates. The stability of the functions has also been tested by CUSUM and CUSUMSQ. Our findings tend to suggest that the foreign interest rate and the nominal effective exchange rate (on top of the real income and domestic interest rate) have significant effects on the stability of the long-run money demand function of M3 and M2, respectively. The results are indicative of the significant effects of capital mobility and/or currency substitution in the broad money demand functions. A clear policy implication is that a failure to incorporate these two international factors in the money demand function may result in the function being unstable and the monetary policy being far less effective.

Suggested Citation

  • Masih, Mansur & Algahtani, Ibrahim, 2008. "Estimation of Long-run Demand for Money: An Application of Long-run Structural Modelling to Saudi Arabia," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 61(1), pages 81-99.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:ecoint:0044
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Abbas, Aadil & Masih, Mansur, 2017. "Which investment (private or public) does contribute to economic growth more? a case study of South Africa," MPRA Paper 108919, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Abu Bakar, Norhidayah & Masih, Mansur, 2016. "Is islamic stock related to interest rate ? Malaysian evidence," MPRA Paper 101190, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Ali, Shah & Masih, Mansur, 2018. "The determinants of economic growth: the Malaysian case," MPRA Paper 107859, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Ismail, Mohamed Ayaz Mohamed & Masih, Mansur, 2015. "Causality between financial development and economic growth, and the Islamic finance imperative: A case study of Indonesia," MPRA Paper 65831, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Rahim, Adam Mohamed & Masih, Mansur, 2018. "Comovement of stock markets of Singapore and its major Asian trading partners," MPRA Paper 110319, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Moayad H. Al Rasasi, 2020. "Assessing the Stability of Money Demand Function in Saudi Arabia," International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, vol. 6(2), pages 22-28, 02-2020.
    7. Rahman, Nadiah Abd & Masih, Mansur, 2017. "Does the islamic bank deposit have an effect on equity market ? Malaysian case," MPRA Paper 106789, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Rafi, Umar & Masih, Mansur, 2014. "Are Islamic Banks Truly Shariah Compliant? An Application of Time Series Multivariate Forecasting Techniques to Islamic Bank Financing," MPRA Paper 57711, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Valli, Mohammed & Masih, Mansur, 2014. "Is there any causality between inflation and FDI in an ‘inflation targeting’ regime? Evidence from South Africa," MPRA Paper 60246, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Mohamad, Shaifulfazlee & Masih, Mansur, 2017. "What drives the property prices ? the Malaysian case," MPRA Paper 102411, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Gadhoum, Anouar & Masih, Mansur, 2018. "Emerging market equities and US policy uncertainty: evidence from Malaysia based on ARDL," MPRA Paper 105469, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Haider Mahmood & Tarek Tawfik Yousef Alkhateeb, 2018. "Asymmetrical effects of real exchange rate on the money demand in Saudi Arabia: A non-linear ARDL approach," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(11), pages 1-12, November.
    13. Rahman, Nadiah & Masih, Mansur, 2018. "Do deposits in islamic banks have an impact on equity market? evidence from Malaysia," MPRA Paper 98734, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Fakhri J. Hasanov & Moayad H. Al Rasasi & Salah S. Alsayaary & Ziyadh Alfawzan, 2022. "Money demand under a fixed exchange rate regime: the case of Saudi Arabia," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 385-411, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Money Demand; Long Run Structural Modelling;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money

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