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The Balance-of-Payments-Constrained Growth Model and the Limits to Export-Led Growth

Author

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  • Blecker, Robert A.

    (American University)

Abstract

This paper discusses how A. P. Thirlwall's model of balance-of-payments-constrained growth can be adapted to analyze the idea of a "fallacy of composition" in the export-led growth strategy of many developing countries. The Deaton-Muellbauer model of the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) is used to represent the adding-up constraints on individual countries' exports, when they are all trying to export competing products to the same foreign markets (i.e. newly industrializing countries are exporting similar types of manufactured goods to the OECD countries). The relevance of the model to the recent financial crises in developing countries and policy alternatives for redirecting development strategies are also discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Blecker, Robert A., 2000. "The Balance-of-Payments-Constrained Growth Model and the Limits to Export-Led Growth," East Asian Economic Review, Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, vol. 4(4), pages 79-108, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:eaerev:0250
    DOI: 10.11644/KIEP.JEAI.2000.4.4.74
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    Cited by:

    1. José Mauricio Gil León & Andrea Yaelt Lemus Vergara, 2012. "Efectos de la apertura comercial sobre la producción manufacturera en Colombia: una aproximación cuantitativa (1975-2007)," Apuntes del Cenes, Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Export-led Growth; Balance Of Payments: Newly Industrializing Countries: Almost Ideal Demand System;

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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