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Methodological basis of modeling evolution of markets of products with long life cycle: a study of the civil aircrafts’ market

Author

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  • Varshavsky, Leonid

    (Central Economics and Mathematics Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Russia)

Abstract

Approach to modeling evolution of market of civil aircraft is proposed. The study of prospects of the US passenger traffic is carried out on the basis of the constructed econometric model of oligopoly in airline industry. Scenarios of key indicators of the market (market structure, revenue passenger miles, aircraft fleet, etc.) are built. Influence of jet fuel prices on the future of the industry is analyzed. In the article linear dynamic model of learning, with taking into account organizational forgetting in aircraft manufacturing, is built. It was applied to the study of the effects of learning and forgetting in aircraft production in Boeing and Airbus. Utilization of such a model makes it significantly easier computation of optimal strategies of companies with durable lifecycle of products. An approach to forming requirements to indicators of new breakthrough technique is proposed (with application to the market of narrow-bodied aircraft)

Suggested Citation

  • Varshavsky, Leonid, 2010. "Methodological basis of modeling evolution of markets of products with long life cycle: a study of the civil aircrafts’ market," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 20(4), pages 53-74.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:apltrx:0054
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gordon, Stephen, 1992. "Costs of Adjustment, the Aggregation Problem and Investment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(3), pages 422-429, August.
    2. Irwin, Douglas A. & Pavcnik, Nina, 2004. "Airbus versus Boeing revisited: international competition in the aircraft market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 223-245, December.
    3. Argote, L. & Epple, D., 1990. "Learning Curves In Manufacturing," GSIA Working Papers 89-90-02, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
    4. C. Lanier Benkard, 2004. "A Dynamic Analysis of the Market for Wide-Bodied Commercial Aircraft," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 71(3), pages 581-611.
    5. C. Lanier Benkard, 2000. "Learning and Forgetting: The Dynamics of Aircraft Production," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 1034-1054, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Varshavsky, Leonid, 2013. "Studying dynamics of indicators of nuclear power stations exploitation (the case of US nuclear power stations)," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 30(2), pages 115-137.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Modeling; airlines; aircraft manufacturing; oligopolistic markets; breakthrough technologies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C73 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Evolutionary Games
    • D43 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection
    • L62 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - Automobiles; Other Transportation Equipment; Related Parts and Equipment
    • L93 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Air Transportation
    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise

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