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Que reste-t-il du Treatise on Probability de Keynes?

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  • Schmidt, Christian

    (LESOD)

Abstract

The paper proposes to revisit Keynes’s Treatise on Probability. First, it stresses the Leibnizian origin of Keynes thought process. Second, it tries to unveil the real scope of the research program which underlies the book. Finding the logical foundations of probability characterized as the degree of rational belief in the truth of a proposition. It shows how such a program has been badly translated in the inadequate terms of Russell’s system of logic. Reducing the degree of belief to a logical relation opens the way to Ramsey’s criticism and misunderstandings. Finally, the paper suggests that some ideas to be found in the Treatise, as for example the notion of “relevance”, have anticipated several concepts being developed today in a cognitivist perspective for understanding individual beliefs. Cet article est consacré à un réexamen du Traité sur la probabilité de Keynes. Il souligne d’abord les origines chez Leibniz de la démarche intellectuelle adoptée par Keynes. Il s’attache ensuite à dégager la nature véritable du projet qui sous-tend sa rédaction : rechercher le fondement logique de la probabilité caractérisée comme le degré de croyance rationnelle en la vérité d’une proposition. Il montre alors comment ce projet initial a été desservi par sa formulation dans les termes inadaptés de la logique propositionnelle de Russell. En assimilant ces degrés de croyances à une relation logique, Keynes s’est exposé aux critiques de Ramsey et le Traité a donné lieu à plusieurs incompréhensions. Cet article suggère enfin que certaines idées exposées dans le Traité, comme la notion de « pertinence », ont anticipé plusieurs concepts qui sont développés aujourd’hui dans les recherches d’inspiration cognitiviste sur les croyances.

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  • Schmidt, Christian, 2003. "Que reste-t-il du Treatise on Probability de Keynes?," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 79(1), pages 37-55, Mars-Juin.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:actuec:v:79:y:2003:i:1:p:37-55
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    1. J. M. Keynes, 1937. "The General Theory of Employment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 51(2), pages 209-223.
    2. Robert J. Aumann, 1999. "Interactive epistemology II: Probability," International Journal of Game Theory, Springer;Game Theory Society, vol. 28(3), pages 301-314.
    3. Robert J. Aumann, 1999. "Interactive epistemology I: Knowledge," International Journal of Game Theory, Springer;Game Theory Society, vol. 28(3), pages 263-300.
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    Cited by:

    1. Rivot, Sylvie, 2021. "Reading Keynes’s policy papers through the prism of his Treatise on Probability: information, expectations and revision of probabilities in economic policy," OSF Preprints s5qp9, Center for Open Science.

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