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La fiabilité des pronostics conjoncturels en France

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  • Ray, Jean-Claude

    (Laboratoire de Statistique Appliquée à la Recherche Économique, Université de Nancy II)

Abstract

Systematic post mortem evaluation of the macroeconomic forecasts' accuracy does not exist in France. This article shows that the performance of the qualitative survey forecasts amongst company managers, obtained separately by the INSEE and by Banque de France, are not very good predictors of industrial production. Turning next to the "Baromètre de L'EXPANSION" and to the composite indicator of the COE, the author proves that, despite severe biases and errors, they have some utility, especially as early and low-price estimators of the present state of the economy. En France il n’existe pas d’évaluation post mortem systématique des prévisions macroéconomiques. Cet article montre que les opinions des chefs d’entreprises industrielles quant à l’évolution de la production, telles que l’INSEE et la Banque de France en opèrent séparément la synthèse, ne sont pas aussi pertinentes qu’on le croit parfois. S’agissant du Baromètre de L’Expansion et de l’indicateur hebdomadaire d’activité économique du C.O.E., malgré des erreurs graves et de sérieux biais, l’auteur conclut à leur utilité, surtout pour aider à estimer précocement les tendances récentes de l’économie.

Suggested Citation

  • Ray, Jean-Claude, 1983. "La fiabilité des pronostics conjoncturels en France," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 59(1), pages 63-73, mars.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:actuec:v:59:y:1983:i:1:p:63-73
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Julius Shiskin, 1957. "Electronic Computers and Business Indicators," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number juli57-1.
    2. Julius Shiskin, 1957. "Electronic Computers and Business Indicators," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 30, pages 219-219.
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