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A Review of the Anthropogenic Global Warming Consensus: An Econometric Forecast Based on the ARIMA Model of Paleoclimate Series

Author

Listed:
  • Gilmar Veriato Fluzer Santos
  • Lucas Gamalel Cordeiro
  • Claudio Antonio Rojo
  • Edison Luiz Leismann

Abstract

This paper projects a climate change scenario using a stochastic paleotemperature time series model and compares it to the prevailing consensus using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Process Model (ARIMA). The parameter estimates of the model were below that established by the anthropogenic experts and governmental organs, such as the IPCC (UN) over a 100-year scenario. Results from the ARIMA model suggest a current period of temperature reduction and a probable cooling. The results from this study add a statistical element of paleoclimate to the debate that contradicts the current scientific consensus.

Suggested Citation

  • Gilmar Veriato Fluzer Santos & Lucas Gamalel Cordeiro & Claudio Antonio Rojo & Edison Luiz Leismann, 2022. "A Review of the Anthropogenic Global Warming Consensus: An Econometric Forecast Based on the ARIMA Model of Paleoclimate Series," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 9(3), pages 102-112, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:rfa:aefjnl:v:9:y:2022:i:3:p:102-112
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Iselin Medhaug & Martin B. Stolpe & Erich M. Fischer & Reto Knutti, 2017. "Reconciling controversies about the ‘global warming hiatus’," Nature, Nature, vol. 545(7652), pages 41-47, May.
    2. Cody C. Routson & Nicholas P. McKay & Darrell S. Kaufman & Michael P. Erb & Hugues Goosse & Bryan N. Shuman & Jessica R. Rodysill & Toby Ault, 2019. "Mid-latitude net precipitation decreased with Arctic warming during the Holocene," Nature, Nature, vol. 568(7750), pages 83-87, April.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • R00 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General - - - General
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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