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The Effect of Fixed Exchange Rates on Monetary Policy of the GCC Countries

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  • Ashraf Nakibullah

Abstract

The GCC member countries have maintained fixed exchange rates against the US dollar for a long time now. These countries also allow liberal cross-border capital movements. Given these arrangements, they have theoretically given up the monetary independence according to the trilemma stating that countries with fixed exchange rates cannot pursue both domestic monetary independence and free capital mobility. This paper tests trilemma for the GCC member countries excluding Saudi Arabia and the UAE due to the unavailability of the pertinent interest rates data from these countries. Using the most recent quarterly data for the period 2004 to 2015, the general finding is that these countries still have some monetary independence. Results for Qatar indicate that they can maintain a full monetary autonomy if the circumstances make them to do so.

Suggested Citation

  • Ashraf Nakibullah, 2017. "The Effect of Fixed Exchange Rates on Monetary Policy of the GCC Countries," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 4(2), pages 11-19, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:rfa:aefjnl:v:4:y:2017:i:2:p:11-19
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ashraf Nakibullah, 2011. "Monetary Policy and Performance of the Oil-Exporting Gulf Cooperation Council Countries," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 10(2), pages 139-157, August.
    2. Frankel, Jeffrey & Schmukler, Sergio L. & Serven, Luis, 2004. "Global transmission of interest rates: monetary independence and currency regime," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 701-733, September.
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    5. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(17), pages 1979-1990.
    6. Michael W. Klein & Jay C. Shambaugh, 2015. "Rounding the Corners of the Policy Trilemma: Sources of Monetary Policy Autonomy," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(4), pages 33-66, October.
    7. Murshed, Hasan & Nakibullah, Ashraf, 2015. "Price level and inflation in the GCC countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 239-252.
    8. Michael W. Klein, 2012. "Capital Controls: Gates versus Walls," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 43(2 (Fall)), pages 317-367.
    9. Andrés Fernández & Michael W Klein & Alessandro Rebucci & Martin Schindler & Martín Uribe, 2016. "Capital Control Measures: A New Dataset," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(3), pages 548-574, August.
    10. Mr. Behrouz Guerami & Mr. S. Nuri Erbas & Mr. George T. Abed, 2003. "The GCC Monetary Union: Some Considerations for the Exchange Rate Regime," IMF Working Papers 2003/066, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    capital controls; fixed exchange rates; trilemma; bounds testing technique;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R00 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General - - - General
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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