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On the Determinants of Loan Default in the Saudi Banking System

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  • Moayad Al Rasasi
  • Soleman Alsabban

Abstract

The main purpose of this paper is to examine the key determinants influencing the non-performing loans (NPLs) in the Saudi banking system. To do so, we consider a set of macroeconomic, banking, and external factors over the period 2010Q1-2023Q3. The contribution of this work to the literature includes providing fresh evidence following the COVID-19 pandemic, utilizing quarterly observations unlike preceding literature, and adopting time series econometric techniques to identify key elements influencing NPLs. A vector error correction model (VECM) is estimated to capture NPL dynamics over both the long-run and short-run. The empirical evidence reveals that NPLs are determined by a combination of macro, banking, and external factors. Specifically, macroeconomic and external variables appear to have a significant impact on NPLs, and their effects are in parallel with theoretical expectations. Likewise, the impact of return on equity on NPLs is significant as expected by theory; however, the impact of other banking factors is against expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Moayad Al Rasasi & Soleman Alsabban, 2024. "On the Determinants of Loan Default in the Saudi Banking System," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 11(2), pages 1-13, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:rfa:aefjnl:v:11:y:2024:i:2:p:1-13
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Padamja Khandelwal & Mr. Ken Miyajima & Mr. Andre O Santos, 2016. "The Impact of Oil Prices on the Banking System in the GCC," IMF Working Papers 2016/161, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Mahmoud Abdelaziz Touny & Mohamed Abdelhameed Shehab, 2015. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Non-Performing Loans: An Empirical Study of Some Arab Countries," American Journal of Economics and Business Administration, Science Publications, vol. 7(1), pages 11-22, May.
    3. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    4. Hisham H. Abdelbaki, 2019. "Macroeconomic determinants of non-performing loans in GCC economies: does the global financial crisis matter?," International Journal of Economics and Business Research, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 17(4), pages 433-447.
    5. Nir Klein, 2013. "Non-Performing Loans in CESEE: Determinants and Impact on Macroeconomic Performance," IMF Working Papers 2013/072, International Monetary Fund.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • R00 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General - - - General
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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