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VIX to S&P 500 Correlation Over the Weekend: Are Market Makers Using S&P 500 Weekend Returns to Price VIX on Monday Morning?

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  • Wan Jia Lin

Abstract

This paper studied the correlation between the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) weekend returns and the VIX changes. Two distinct patterns are found- (1) VIX is dropping intraday and rising overnight; (2) a negative SPY weekend return correlates with VIX weekend change. We found the negative correlation is statistically significant (P=0.000). This proves that option market makers are using SPY Friday overnight returns to adjust the implied volatility the next morning. This may lead to a profitable options model that sells high IV options closing on Friday and buys them back next Monday, especially before the earnings announcement.

Suggested Citation

  • Wan Jia Lin, 2023. "VIX to S&P 500 Correlation Over the Weekend: Are Market Makers Using S&P 500 Weekend Returns to Price VIX on Monday Morning?," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 10(1), pages 3843-3843, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:rfa:aefjnl:v:10:y:2023:i:1:p:3843
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Connolly, Robert & Stivers, Chris & Sun, Licheng, 2005. "Stock Market Uncertainty and the Stock-Bond Return Relation," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(1), pages 161-194, March.
    2. Richard R. Mendenhall, 2004. "Arbitrage Risk and Post-Earnings-Announcement Drift," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(4), pages 875-894, October.
    3. Hakan Berument & Halil Kiymaz, 2001. "The day of the week effect on stock market volatility," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 25(2), pages 181-193, June.
    4. Tianyi Wang & Sicong Cheng & Fangsheng Yin & Mei Yu, 2022. "Overnight volatility, realized volatility, and option pricing," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(7), pages 1264-1283, July.
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    JEL classification:

    • R00 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General - - - General
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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