¿Ha contribuido la población inmigrante a la convergencia interregional en España?

Resumen:La fortísima inmigración extranjera en España entre 1999 y 2009 ha generado efectos muy limitados sobre la convergencia interregional de rentas y productividades, a diferencia de lo que sucedió con los flujos migratorios internos entre 1955 y 1979. El presente artículo intenta explicar por qué, partiendo de las previsiones derivadas del modelo neoclásico de convergencia interregional. Los resultados obtenidos muestran que si bien PIB per cápita y productividad han caído en términos comparados en las regiones de destino de una mayor proporción de inmigrantes, esas regiones no han sido las más ricas y productivas. Los inmigrantes acuden allí donde hay más oportunidades de empleo o un contingente previo; pero no necesariamente hacia las regiones más prósperas en perspectiva macroeconómica.Abstract: Immigration is the main determinant of growth of the Spanish population for the period 1999-2009. More than three quarters (76%) of the total increase of 6.5 million for this period corresponds to the net inflow of foreigners. Their vegetative contribution, which amounts to around half a million people, must be added to this. Following the logic of the neoclassical growth model, two circumstances should take place so this intense inflow of foreign immigrants to Spain throughout the period may lead to interregional convergence. First, the positive impact of immigrants on GDP must be less than its effect on population and employment so that the denominator of the formulas of productivity and per capita income grow faster than the numerator does. Secondly, immigrants should mainly settle in regions that are (initially) wealthier and more productive. However, the intense foreign immigration that took place in Spain between 1999 and 2009 has had a very limited impact on interregional income and productivity convergence; this is unlike what happened with internal migration between 1955 and 1979. This article attempts to explain why this happened. In so doing, it uses estimates derived from the neoclassical model of interregional convergence. The paper reviews literature on the affect of immigration on patterns of convergence and what actually happened in Spain between 1962 and 1999. Additionally, focusing on the latest phase, it reviews migratory patterns and interregional convergence in Spain. After reviewing these issues, the paper uses a methodology consisting in an econometric analysis of the relationship between migratory/migration flows in Spain over the period 1999 – 2010 and productivity and income per capita. The econometric analysis uses estimations drawn from the following equations: Where CUOTAPIB, CUOTAPOB and CUOTAEMPLEO are the variation between 1998 and 2010 of the percentage each community represents of the total Spanish GDP, population and number of jobs, respectively. The source used for all three cases is the INE Regional Accounting. For its part, the variable IMMIGRANTS refers to the total of the foreign residential variations accumulated between 1999 and 2010 according to statistical residential variation (including the exterior and interior balance). Assuming parameters β, γ and δ are positive, the key lies in the relationship between them. If β <γ, δ increased immigration to a region boosts GDP but simultaneously reduces productivity and GDP per capita. Although specifications are very simple, the purpose is not to explain the behavior of the quotas of GDP, employment and population. This would undoubtedly require more complex structural models. What is really of interest to us here is to check for correlations between the quotas and the flow of immigrants and compare their intensity. The Ramsey RESET test is also used to ascertain the existence of problems of functional specification, a hypothesis that cannot be rejected. Estimates confirm the signs and relationships identified. Increased immigration is positively correlated with gains in regional shares/quotas of GDP, population and employment. However, the effect is substantially lower in the case of GDP than it is for population or employment. The results confirm that population, employment and GDP have risen above average and gained market share in Spain in the preferred regions of destination for immigrants. Gains in population and employment have been greater, so these regions have lost positions in terms of GDP per capita and apparent labor productivity. In short, the first of the two conditions laid out in this paper has been fulfilled. Based on these results we may state that while GDP per capita and productivity have comparatively fallen in regions targeted by a greater proportion of immigrants, these regions are not the richest and most productive ones. It therefore follows to state that immigrants go either where there are more employment opportunities or where there has been a previous immigration contingent; yet these regions are not necessarily the most prosperous ones from a macroeconomic point of view. However, the second condition laid down in this paper has only been partially verified. The fate of foreign immigrants has largely been influenced by the likelihood of employment and the existence of previous immigration and, to a much lesser extent, by the relative level of regional income per inhabitant. The likelihood of employment is not additionally related to a higher per capita income. This dissonance between variables at a macro and micro scale deactivates the convergence mechanisms. The arrival of immigrants has done little to cut regional disparities in GDP per capita and productivity. In conclusion, we find that although immigration is the main determinant of the growth of the Spanish population throughout the period 1999-2009, the arrival of immigrants has contributed little to cutting regional disparities in GDP per capita and productivity.