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Economic Growth, Foreign Investments and Exports in Romania: A VECM Analysis

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  • Oana Cristina Popovici
  • Adrian Cantemir Călin

Abstract

The present paper deals with the relationship between GDP, FDI and merchandise exports using a vector error-correction model (VECM). The empirical model is based on quarterly data for the period 2005-2014 in Romania. The Granger causality test indicate a positive significant bidirectional relationship and between FDI and GDP and a unidirectional relationship between GDP and exports. The variance decomposition indicates that more than 50% of the fluctuations in FDI are explained by the shocks in GDP, while the influence of shocks in exports is quite low. Fluctuations in GDP are largely explained by the shocks occurring in this variable. As regards exports, 44% of fluctuations are due to FDI, while the impact of GDP reaches 13-15% after 10 quarters.

Suggested Citation

  • Oana Cristina Popovici & Adrian Cantemir Călin, 2016. "Economic Growth, Foreign Investments and Exports in Romania: A VECM Analysis," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 19(61), pages 95-122, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:rej:journl:v:19:y:2016:i:61:p:95-122
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2021. "Is export-led growth hypothesis still valid for sub-Saharan African countries? New evidence from panel data analysis," European Journal of Management and Business Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 31(1), pages 77-93, April.
    2. Odhiambo, Nicholas M, 2021. "A test of exports-led growth hypothesis in Sub-Saharan African countries: Evidence from panel data analysis," Working Papers 27170, University of South Africa, Department of Economics.
    3. Nicholas M. Odhiambo, "undated". "Is Export-Led Growth Hypothesis Still Valid For Sub-Saharan African Countries? New Evidence From Panel Data Analysis," Working Papers AESRI01, African Economic and Social Research Institute (AESRI).
    4. N.M. Odhiambo, 2021. "Is Export-Led Growth Hypothesis Still Valid for Sub-Saharan African Countries? New Evidence from Panel Data Analysis," Working Papers AESRI-2021-02, African Economic and Social Research Institute (AESRI), revised Jan 2021.
    5. Milin Ioana Anda & Bușan Gabriela & Ecobici Nicolae & Abdul Rehman, 2023. "Economic Growth Drivers in Romania: Evidence from a NARDL Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-19, March.
    6. Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2021. "Is export-led growth hypothesis still valid for sub-Saharan African countries? New evidence from panel data analysis," European Journal of Management and Business Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 31(1), pages 77-93, April.
    7. Nicholas M Odhiambo, 2021. "Is Export-Led Growth Hypothesis Still Valid For Sub-Saharan African Countries? New Evidence From Panel Data Analysis," Working Papers AERI0121, African Economic and Social Research Institute (AESRI), revised 25 Aug 2021.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    VECM; GDP; foreign direct investment; export;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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