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The Cumulative Cost of Regulations

Author

Listed:
  • Bentley Coffey

    (University of South Carolina)

  • Patrick McLaughlin

    (George Mason University)

  • Pietro Peretto

    (Duke University)

Abstract

We estimate the effects of federal regulation on the value added to GDP for a panel of 22 industries in the United States over a period of 35 years (1977–2012). The structure of our linear specification is explicitly derived from the closed-form solutions of a multisector Schumpeterian model of endogenous growth. We allow regulation to enter the specification in a fairly flexible manner. Our estimates of the model's parameters are then identified from covariation in some standard sector-specific data joined with RegData 2.2, which measures the incidence of regulations on industries based on a text analysis of federal regulatory code. With the model's parameters fitted to real data, we confidently conduct counterfactual experiments on alternative regulatory environments. Our results show that regulatory restrictions have had a net effect of dampening economic growth by approximately 0.8 percent per annum since 1980. Had regulation been held constant at levels observed in 1980, our model predicts that the economy would have been nearly 25 percent larger by 2012 (i.e., regulatory growth since 1980 cost GDP $4 trillion in 2012, or about $13,000 per capita). (Copyright: Elsevier)

Suggested Citation

  • Bentley Coffey & Patrick McLaughlin & Pietro Peretto, 2020. "The Cumulative Cost of Regulations," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 38, pages 1-21, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:issued:18-227
    DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2020.03.004
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    Cited by:

    1. Juan S. Mora-Sanguinetti & Javier Quintana & Isabel Soler & Rok Spruk, 2024. "The heterogenous effects of a higher volume of regulation: evidence from more than 200k Spanish norms," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 65(1), pages 137-153, June.
    2. Dustin Chambers & Patrick A. McLaughlin & Oliver Sherouse, 2023. "Regulation, entrepreneurship, and dynamism," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(5), pages 2449-2466, May.
    3. Choudhury, Sanchari, 2023. "The causal effect of regulation on income inequality across the U.S. states," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    4. James B. Bailey & Diana W. Thomas, 2017. "Regulating away competition: the effect of regulation on entrepreneurship and employment," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 237-254, December.
    5. Tara M. Sinclair & Zhoudan Xie, 2021. "Sentiment and Uncertainty about Regulation," Working Papers 2021-004, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    6. Juan de Lucio & Juan S. Mora-Sanguinetti, 2021. "New dimensions of regulatory complexity and their economic cost. An analysis using text mining," Working Papers 2107, Banco de España.
    7. Juan S. Mora-Sanguinetti & Javier Quintana & Isabel Soler & Rok Spruk, 2023. "Sector-level economic effects of regulatory complexity: evidence from Spain," Working Papers 2312, Banco de España.
    8. Pellegrino, Bruno & Zheng, Geoffery, 2024. "Quantifying the impact of red tape on investment: A survey data approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    9. Aaron J. Staples & Dustin Chambers & Trey Malone, 2022. "How many regulations does it take to get a beer? The geography of beer regulations," Regulation & Governance, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 16(4), pages 1197-1210, October.
    10. Campos, Nauro F. & De Grauwe, Paul & Ji, Yuemei, 2023. "Structural reforms and economic performance: the experience of advanced economies," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 120870, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    11. Dustin Chambers & Colin O’Reilly, 2022. "The economic theory of regulation and inequality," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 193(1), pages 63-78, October.
    12. Alexander, Anna & De Vito, Antonio & Menicacci, Luca, 2024. "At what cost? Environmental regulation and corporate cash holdings," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    13. François Facchini & Elena Seghezza, 2021. "Legislative production and public spending in France," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 189(1), pages 71-91, October.
    14. de Lucio, Juan & Mora-Sanguinetti, Juan S., 2022. "Drafting “better regulation”: The economic cost of regulatory complexity," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 163-183.
    15. Dustin Chambers & Patrick A. McLaughlin & Laura Stanley, 2019. "Regulation and poverty: an empirical examination of the relationship between the incidence of federal regulation and the occurrence of poverty across the US states," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 180(1), pages 131-144, July.
    16. Staples, Malone & Chambers, Dustin & Malone, Trey, 2020. "The economic geography of beer regulations," Center for Growth and Opportunity at Utah State University 307180, Center for Growth and Opportunity.
    17. Anne Hobson & Eileen Norcross, 2021. "A call for institutional analysis: practicing polycentric political economy in policy research," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 34(3), pages 347-359, September.
    18. Gatchev, Vladimir A. & Pirinsky, Christo A. & Zhao, Mengxin, 2022. "Attitudes towards business and corporate governance," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    19. Diana W. Thomas & Michael D. Thomas, 2022. "Regulation, competition, and the social control of business," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 193(1), pages 109-125, October.
    20. Masayuki Morikawa, 2023. "Compliance costs and productivity: an approach from working hours," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 63(3), pages 117-137, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Regulation; Economic growth; Macroeconomic performance; Endogenous growth; Schumpeterian growth; RegData; Costs of regulation; Total cost of regulation; Federal regulation; Costs of entry; Productivity; Total factor productivity; Labor productivity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • L50 - Industrial Organization - - Regulation and Industrial Policy - - - General
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • O30 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - General

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