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Temporary stabilization: a Frechet-Weibullextreme value distribution approach

Author

Listed:
  • Francisco Venegas-Martinez

    (Instituto Politecnico Nacional)

  • Ambrosio Ortiz-Ramirez

    (Instituto Politecnico Nacional)

  • Francisco Ortiz-Arango

    (Universidad Panamericana)

Abstract

This paper develops, in a small open economy of pure exchange framework, a stochastic model of exchange-rate-based inflation stabilization plan that is expected to be temporary. Agents have expectations of devaluation driven by a mixed diffusion-jump process where the expected size of a possible devaluation is supposed to have an extreme value distribution of the Frechet-Weibull type. Consumption and wealth equilibrium dynamics are examined when such a stabilization plan is implemented. It is assumed that financial markets are incomplete, that is, there are more risk factors than risky assets. Finally, the effects of exogenous shocks on economic welfare are assessed.

Suggested Citation

  • Francisco Venegas-Martinez & Ambrosio Ortiz-Ramirez & Francisco Ortiz-Arango, 2012. "Temporary stabilization: a Frechet-Weibullextreme value distribution approach," EconoQuantum, Revista de Economia y Finanzas, Universidad de Guadalajara, Centro Universitario de Ciencias Economico Administrativas, Departamento de Metodos Cuantitativos y Maestria en Economia., vol. 9(1), pages 35-55, Enero-Jun.
    • Handle: RePEc:qua:journl:v:9:y:2012:i:1:p:35-55
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Venegas-Martinez, Francisco, 2006. "Stochastic temporary stabilization: Undiversifiable devaluation and income risks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 157-173, January.
    2. Venegas-Martínez, Francisco, 2010. "Planes no creíbles de estabilización de precios, riesgo cambiario y opciones reales para posponer consumo. Un análisis con volatilidad estocástica," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(308), pages 899-936, octubre-d.
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    4. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2001. "The benefits of dollarization when stabilization policy lacks credibility and financial markets are imperfect," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 440-481.
    5. Sergio Rebelo & Carlos A. Végh, 1995. "Real Effects of Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization: An Analysis of Competing Theories," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1995, Volume 10, pages 125-188, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Carlos A. Végh, 1992. "Stopping High Inflation: An Analytical Overview," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(3), pages 626-695, September.
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    8. Mendoza, Enrique G. & Uribe, Martin, 2000. "Devaluation risk and the business-cycle implications of exchange-rate management," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 239-296, December.
    9. Enrique G. Mendoza & Martin Uribe, 1996. "The syndrome of exchange-rate-based stabilizations and the uncertain duration of currency pegs," International Finance Discussion Papers 548, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Venegas-Martinez, Francisco, 2001. "Temporary stabilization: A stochastic analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(9), pages 1429-1449, September.
    11. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Drazen, Allan, 1998. "Uncertain Duration Of Reform," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(4), pages 443-455, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. López-Herrera, Francisco & Rodríguez-Nava, Abigail & Venegas-Martínez, Francisco, 2011. "Efectos en las decisiones de consumo y portafolio del riesgo cambiario con discontinuidades," Sección de Estudios de Posgrado e Investigación de la Escuela Superios de Economía del Instituto Politécnico Nacional, in: Perrotini-Hernández, Ignacio (ed.), Crecimiento y Desarrollo Económico en México, volume 1, chapter 12, pages 172-182, Escuela Superior de Economía, Instituto Politécnico Nacional.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation stabilization; extreme values;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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