IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/qnt/quantl/y2013i11p91-106.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Declared and actual policy of the Russian Central Bank in 2000–2008: how large is the difference? (in Russian)

Author

Listed:
  • Andrey Sinyakov

    (Sberbank of Russia, Moscow, Russia)

Abstract

There is an opinion that the Russian Central Bank's actual policy in 2000–2008 was real exchange rate targeting. At the same time, the Central Bank regularly declared inflation targets, but regularly missed them. We estimate a simple structural threshold VAR model of the Russian economy to test for these two regimes of the CB's policy. Our testing procedure is based on applying the bootstrap to the estimated TVAR model. We find significant nonlinearity (two policy regimes) caused by endogenous switching between regimes based on past month inflation. The Central Bank by changing its targets was not able to commit to inflation reduction in that period of time, hence facing the issue of credible monetary policy. After the global financial crisis the CB declared its commitment to inflation targeting. But, based on our findings, the policy will be successful only if the Central Bank actually commits itself to reaching inflationary goals.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrey Sinyakov, 2013. "Declared and actual policy of the Russian Central Bank in 2000–2008: how large is the difference? (in Russian)," Quantile, Quantile, issue 11, pages 91-106, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:qnt:quantl:y:2013:i:11:p:91-106
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://quantile.ru/11/11-AS.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kirill Sosunov & Oleg Zamulin, 2007. "Monetary Policy in an Economy Sick with Dutch Disease," Working Papers w0101, New Economic School (NES).
    2. Tena, Juan de Dios & Tremayne, A.R., 2009. "Modelling monetary transmission in UK manufacturing industry," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 1053-1066, September.
    3. Bruce E. Hansen, 2000. "Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(3), pages 575-604, May.
    4. Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 413-430, March.
    5. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
    6. repec:zbw:bofitp:2006_011 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Kirill Sosunov & Oleg Zamulin, 2006. "The Inflationary Consequences of Real Exchange Rate Targeting via Accumulation of Reserves," Working Papers w0082, New Economic School (NES).
    8. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    9. Nathan S. Balke, 2000. "Credit and Economic Activity: Credit Regimes and Nonlinear Propagation of Shocks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 344-349, May.
    10. Hansen Bruce E., 1997. "Inference in TAR Models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-16, April.
    11. Mandler, Martin, 2010. "Macroeconomic dynamics and inflation regimes in the U.S. Results from threshold vector autoregressions," MPRA Paper 21887, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Ho, Tsung-wu, 2005. "Investigating the threshold effects of inflation on PPP," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 926-948, September.
    13. Atanasova Christina, 2003. "Credit Market Imperfections and Business Cycle Dynamics: A Nonlinear Approach," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(4), pages 1-22, December.
    14. Shen, Chung-Hua & Chiang, Thomas Chi-Nan, 1999. "Retrieving the vanishing liquidity effect--a threshold vector autoregressive model," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 259-277, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mohamed El-Hodiri & Bulat Mukhamediyev, 2014. "Monetary Policy Rules in Some Transition Economies," Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, Eurasian Publications, vol. 2(3), pages 26-44.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tena, Juan de Dios & Tremayne, A.R., 2009. "Modelling monetary transmission in UK manufacturing industry," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 1053-1066, September.
    2. Kirstin Hubrich & Timo Teräsvirta, 2013. "Thresholds and Smooth Transitions in Vector Autoregressive Models," CREATES Research Papers 2013-18, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    3. Baum, Anja & Koester, Gerrit B., 2011. "The impact of fiscal policy on economic activity over the business cycle - evidence from a threshold VAR analysis," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2011,03, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    4. Galyna Grynkiv & Lars Stentoft, 2018. "Stationary Threshold Vector Autoregressive Models," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-23, August.
    5. Ms. Anja Baum & Mr. Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro & Miss Anke Weber, 2012. "Fiscal Multipliers and the State of the Economy," IMF Working Papers 2012/286, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Marina Tkalec, 2013. "The Dynamics of Deposit Euroization in European Post-Transition Countries: Evidence from Threshold VAR," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 66-83.
    7. Martin Bruns & Michele Piffer, 2021. "Monetary policy shocks over the business cycle: Extending the Smooth Transition framework," University of East Anglia School of Economics Working Paper Series 2021-07, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
    8. van Dijk, Dick & Hans Franses, Philip & Peter Boswijk, H., 2007. "Absorption of shocks in nonlinear autoregressive models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(9), pages 4206-4226, May.
    9. Camilo Alberto Cárdenas-Hurtado & Aaron Levi Garavito-Acosta & Jorge Hernán Toro-Córdoba, 2018. "Asymmetric Effects of Terms of Trade Shocks on Tradable and Non-tradable Investment Rates: The Colombian Case," Borradores de Economia 1043, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    10. Giovannoni, Francesco & de Dios Tena, Juan, 2008. "Market concentration, macroeconomic uncertainty and monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1097-1123, August.
    11. Mr. Magnus Saxegaard, 2006. "Excess Liquidity and Effectiveness of Monetary Policy: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Working Papers 2006/115, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Renée Fry-Mckibbin & Jasmine Zheng, 2016. "Effects of the US monetary policy shocks during financial crises – a threshold vector autoregression approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(59), pages 5802-5823, December.
    13. repec:wsr:wpaper:y:2019:i:189 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Awijen, Haithem & Hammami, Sami, 2017. "Financial frictions and regime switching: The role of collateral asset in emerging stock market," Economics Discussion Papers 2017-6, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    15. Stefan Avdjiev & Zheng Zeng, 2014. "Credit growth, monetary policy and economic activity in a three-regime TVAR model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(24), pages 2936-2951, August.
    16. Fazzari Steven M. & Morley James & Panovska Irina, 2015. "State-dependent effects of fiscal policy," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(3), pages 285-315, June.
    17. Jarkko Jääskelä, 2007. "More Potent Monetary Policy? Insights from a Threshold Model," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2007-07, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    18. LeBaron, Blake, 2003. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance,: Philip Hans Franses and Dick van Dijk, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2000, 296 pp., Paperback, ISBN 0-521-77965-0, $33, [UK pound]22.95, [," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 751-752.
    19. Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van, 2000. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521779654, September.
    20. Tommaso Ferraresi & Andrea Roventini & Giorgio Fagiolo, 2015. "Fiscal Policies and Credit Regimes: A TVAR Approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(7), pages 1047-1072, November.
    21. António Afonso & Jaromír Baxa & Michal Slavík, 2018. "Fiscal developments and financial stress: a threshold VAR analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 395-423, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    structural TVAR; bootstrap; generalized impulse response functions; inflation targeting; real exchange rate targeting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:qnt:quantl:y:2013:i:11:p:91-106. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Stanislav Anatolyev (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://quantile.ru/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.