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Testing for predictive ability in the presence of structural breaks (in Russian)

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  • Pavel Yaskov

    (Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia)

Abstract

We propose a new approach to testing for predictive ability in the presence of structural breaks in data. Our approach extends the well-known results of West (1996) and West & McCracken (1998), and is alternative to methods developed in Giacomini & White (2006) and Giacomini & Rossi (2010).

Suggested Citation

  • Pavel Yaskov, 2010. "Testing for predictive ability in the presence of structural breaks (in Russian)," Quantile, Quantile, issue 8, pages 127-135, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:qnt:quantl:y:2010:i:8:p:127-135
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Raffaella Giacomini & Halbert White, 2006. "Tests of Conditional Predictive Ability," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(6), pages 1545-1578, November.
    2. Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2001. "Tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing for nested models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 85-110, November.
    3. Boldea, Otilia & Hall, Alastair R., 2013. "Estimation and inference in unstable nonlinear least squares models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 172(1), pages 158-167.
    4. West, Kenneth D, 1996. "Asymptotic Inference about Predictive Ability," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(5), pages 1067-1084, September.
    5. West, Kenneth D & McCracken, Michael W, 1998. "Regression-Based Tests of Predictive Ability," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 817-840, November.
    6. Hirukawa, Masayuki, 2010. "A Two-Stage Plug-In Bandwidth Selection And Its Implementation For Covariance Estimation," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(3), pages 710-743, June.
    7. de Jong, Robert M. & Davidson, James, 2000. "The Functional Central Limit Theorem And Weak Convergence To Stochastic Integrals I," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(5), pages 621-642, October.
    8. Raffaella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2010. "Forecast comparisons in unstable environments," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 595-620.
    9. Halbert White, 2000. "A Reality Check for Data Snooping," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1097-1126, September.
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