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Salvatore Biasco e l'instabilita' dell'economia mondiale nella prospettiva dei "cicli valutari" (Salvatore Biasco and the instability of world economy in the perspective of "currency cycles")

Author

Listed:
  • Daniela Palma

    (ENEA, Roma)

Abstract

Con il saggio su "I cicli valutari e l'economia internazionale" di fine anni Ottanta (1987), Salvatore Biasco avvia una importante riflessione teorica sul regime di fluttuazione dei cambi, confutando sulla base di un approccio keynesiano la validita' dei modelli di determinazione del tasso di cambio ispirati ai principi di efficienza dei mercati finanziari. A partire da un quadro analitico di determinazione su base finanziaria del tasso di cambio nel quale le scelte di portafoglio degli operatori internazionali avvengono in condizioni di incertezza e di razionalita' limitata, l'analisi mette in luce come la finanza speculativa di breve periodo amplifichi i movimenti della fluttuazione, provocando squilibri strutturali dell'economia reale, che retroagiscono sulla dinamica del cambio e concorrono a destabilizzare il quadro macroeconomico. Su questa linea interpretativa l'analisi di Biasco approda successivamente a una lettura del disequilibrio economico che ha caratterizzato la dinamica dello sviluppo mondiale fino al culmine della crisi finanziaria internazionale del 2007-2008, sottolineando il ruolo del dollaro, in quanto valuta di riferimento del sistema monetario internazionale, e il contributo dell'instabilita' dei mercati valutari alla crescente fragilita' finanziaria che ha investito l'economia capitalistica. With his essay on "Exchange rates and the international economy" from the late 1980s (1987), Salvatore Biasco gives rise to an important theoretical reasoning about the flexible exchange rates regime, adopting a Keynesian perspective and making a strong criticism of the exchange rate models based on the "efficient markets" neoclassical hypothesis. Within an analytical framework where the exchange rate is a financial variable and portfolio choices are made under uncertainty and bounded rationality, it is shown that short run speculation in currencies enhance fluctuation movements, causing structural disequilibrium in real economy that feeds back into exchange rate dynamics and makes the macroeconomic scenario increasingly unstable. Along these lines Biasco's work in following years gives further insights into the development of world economy up to the outbreak of the 2007-2008 international crisis, focusing on the role played by the dollar in the international monetary system and on the increase of financial fragility in capitalist economies as a result of instability in currency markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniela Palma, 2023. "Salvatore Biasco e l'instabilita' dell'economia mondiale nella prospettiva dei "cicli valutari" (Salvatore Biasco and the instability of world economy in the perspective of "currency cy," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 76(303), pages 253-263.
  • Handle: RePEc:psl:moneta:2023:36
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    File URL: https://rosa.uniroma1.it/rosa04/moneta_e_credito/article/view/18283/17084
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    flexible exchange rate; currency cycles; bounded rationality; financial capitalism; financial fragility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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