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Central bank forecasts of liquidity factors and the control of short term interest rates

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  • Ulrich Bindseil

    (European Central Bank, DG-Operations, Operations Analysis Division, Frankfurt a.M. (Germany))

Abstract

A simple model of the interaction between central bank liquidity management and the inter-bank overnight rate is suggested, which allows analysing the publication offorecasts of liquidity factors by the European Central Bank adopted in June 2000. The paper argues that the main practical advantage of the publication of theseforecasts is that it makes the signal extraction problem with regard to the centralbank's intentions trivial and hence allows establishing a superior behavioural equilibrium between the central bank and the money market participants. In this equilibrium, the central bank can achieve a better steering of overnight rates than under private autonomous factor forecasts, depending of course also on the quality of liquidity forecasts. It is furthermore shown that the publication of an average of autonomous factors, such as adopted by the ECB, is, at least within the model presented, superior to the separate publication of autonomous factors for each single day.

Suggested Citation

  • Ulrich Bindseil, 2002. "Central bank forecasts of liquidity factors and the control of short term interest rates," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 55(220), pages 13-37.
    • Handle: RePEc:psl:bnlaqr:2002:12
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    File URL: http://ojs.uniroma1.it/index.php/PSLQuarterlyReview/article/view/9902/9784
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Morgunov, V.I. (Моргунов, В.И.), 2016. "The Liquidity Management of the Banking Sector and the Short-Term Money Market Interest Rates [Управление Ликвидностью Банковского Сектора И Краткосрочной Процентной Ставкой Денежного Рынка]," Working Papers 21311, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    2. Kiyutsevskaya, Anna (Киюцевская, Анна) & Trunin, Pavel (Трунин, Павел), 2018. "Features of Interest Rate Policy Under the Inflation Targeting Regime [Особенности Процентной Политики При Режиме Таргетирования Инфляции]," Working Papers 031812, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Interest Rates; Interest;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

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