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Allemagne : en quête de nouvelles modalités de partage de la valeur ajoutée

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  • Odile Chagny

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[eng] Until recently, the debate on the future of the German economic model generally set the supporters of labor flexibility (on the business side) against the supporters of monetary easing (on the Trade Union side). The increase in agreements on labor flexibilization during 1996, shows a changing behaviour of Trade Union which has to be explained. In January 1996 the négociations « Kanzlerrunde » under the sponsorship of Helmut Kohl, emphasized the constraints due to the reunification cost, in a context of rising DM. One year later, the recovery of exports and the normalization of the exchange rate, have reduced the monetary constraint. However, the labor market adjustment goes on, and the West side unemployment rate has overtaken its historical top level in January 1997 (9,8 %). This result is all the more impressing because it confirms a long run trend. Since the middle of 1992, the employment continuously decreased excepting during the 1994 recovery which has been stabilizing the unemployment rate for three quarters. Such adjustment have obviously structural reasons. The German model success is based theoretically on the ability of supply to cope with a strong competitiveness constraint, thanks to the social consensus. The rigourous monetary policy and the rising DM imply slow price increases, and so, weigh on margins. Consequently, wages in line with an improving productivity are necessary for stabilizing profits, limiting the real rise of the exchange rate and for preserving competitiveness. Centralized branch négociations normally contribute to this nominal adjustement. And the small gap between wage increases inside a branch implies theoretically high average productivity levels. The adaptability of less profitable firms is stimulated, and at the same time, the German « co-decision » system allows higher wages in more profitable firms. However, the German economy has more and more difficulties for improving productivity faster than neighbouring countries, in a context of converging inflation rates. As a result, the profitability effort is now shifted onto wages. At the same time, the adaptability of the German economy has been all the more requested because of the reunification shock. [fre] Jusqu'à récemment, le débat sur l'avenir du modèle économique allemand opposait traditionnellement les tenants d'une insuffisante flexibilité du marché du travail, recrutés plutôt du côté patronal, à ceux d'une orthodoxie monétaire pénalisante (via le taux de change) représentés plutôt du côté syndical '. La généralisation des accords de flexibilisation du travail dans le courant de 1996 marque à cet égard une inflexion, car elle exprime la résolution de l'ensemble des partenaires sociaux. Il apparaît donc important de comprendre cette détermination. Les rencontres menées en janvier 1996 sous l'égide du chancelier (les « Kanzlerrunde ») avaient mis en avant les contraintes engendrées par le financement de la réunification, dans un contexte de forte appréciation nominale du deutsche mark. Un an plus tard, la bonne orientation des exportations et la normalisation du change ont relégué au second rang les problèmes du niveau de la monnaie. Les ajustements sur le marché de l'emploi se sont cependant poursuivis à un rythme soutenu et le taux de chômage a atteint en janvier 1997 un record absolu dans les anciens Lander (9,8 %). Ces évolutions ont suscité des réactions d'autant plus nourries qu'elles s'inscrivent sur une tendance plus longue. La baisse de l'emploi est en effet ininterrompue dans les anciens Lander depuis la mi- 1992 et la reprise de 1994 n'a stabilisé le taux de chômage que le temps de trois trimestres, avant que le ralentissement de 1995 ne le pousse de nouveau à la hausse. De tels ajustements peuvent difficilement n'avoir qu'une composante conjoncturelle. La réussite du modèle allemand repose en fait théoriquement sur l'adaptation de l'offre à une contrainte de marge forte, à laquelle sont censés contribuer l'ensemble des partenaires sociaux. La rigueur de la politique monétaire allemande et l'appréciation nominale de la monnaie contraignent en effet les prix, et donc les marges. Des efforts de productivité et une bonne réponse des salaires nominaux sont alors nécessaires à la préservation des profits, car ils permettent de contenir l'appréciation réelle de la monnaie et donc de limiter la détérioration de la compétitivité. Les négociations centralisées de branche contribuent en principe également à gérer les contraintes nominales. Peu différenciées au sein d'une même branche, les progressions salariales imposent en en effet théoriquement des niveaux de productivité moyens élevés. La capacité d'adaptation des entreprises les moins rentables en est stimulée, tandis que la codécision à l'allemande permet d'introduire une certaine flexibilité à la hausse des salaires dans les entreprises les plus rentables 2. Or la difficulté de l'Allemagne à dégager des gains de productivité supérieurs à ceux de ses concurrents est apparue comme une contrainte de plus en plus difficile à gérer dans un contexte de convergence des rythmes d'inflation et a reporté l'ajustement sur le mode de formation des salaires. En même temps, la capacité d'adaptation de l'économie allemande a été d'autant plus sollicitée qu'il lui a fallu absorber les chocs impliqués par la réunification.

Suggested Citation

  • Odile Chagny, 1997. "Allemagne : en quête de nouvelles modalités de partage de la valeur ajoutée," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 61(1), pages 165-200.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:rvofce:ofce_0751-6614_1997_num_61_1_1456
    DOI: 10.3406/ofce.1997.1456
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ofce.1997.1456
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Grubb, David B. & Jackman, Richard & Layard, Richard, 1983. "Wage rigidity and unemployment in OECD countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(1-2), pages 11-39.
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    1. Marceline Bodier, 2000. "Les divergences d'évolution des marchés du travail allemand et européens," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 332(1), pages 65-82.

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