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Les indicateurs de la politique budgétaire et fiscale. Application au cas français

Author

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  • Christian de Boissieu
  • Alain Gubian

Abstract

[fre] L'augmentation des déficits budgétaires depuis le milieu des années 1970 suscite des interprétations souvent divergentes. Pour éclairer le débat, il faut disposer d'indicateurs de la politique budgétaire et fiscale qui permettent de distinguer l'origine subie ou voulue de ces déficits et d'apprécier l'impact des mesures qui relèvent de l'action autonome de l'Etat. Après un rappel des évolutions du solde budgétaire selon ses différentes définitions et des méthodologies généralement proposées, l'article présente la démarche retenue qui, en partant des données budgétaires et fiscales brutes, permet de construire de tels indicateurs. S'appuyant sur les estimations du modèle OFCE-annuel il met en évidence des « indicateurs d'action délibérée » et des « indicateurs d'impact » pour la France durant la période 1975-1982. Avec ces indicateurs on retrouve les principales évolutions de la politique budgétaire et fiscale, dans un sens expansif en 1975 et 1981-1982, dans un sens restrictif en 1976 et 1977. Un caractère expansif se révèle également en 1980. L'évolution subie ou automatique des soldes reflète les fluctuations cycliques, mais aussi les changements structurels de l'économie. Enfin une comparaison est esquissée avec certains travaux de l'OCDE, puis des prolongements de l'analyse, pour mieux intégrer la dimension monétaire et financière de la politique budgétaire, sont suggérés. [eng] The increase of budget deficits since the mid 70's have led to somewhat opposite interpretations. In order to clarify the debate, one can rely upon budget indicators that isolate the deliberate portion of the deficit, and quantify the impact of public action. The evolution of the budget balance according to its different definitions and to the methodologies usually proposed are then described. The article goes on to present the procedure upon with such indicators have been constructed, based on gross fiscal and budgetary data. Using the OFCE-annual econometric model estimations, the « discretionnary indicators » and the « impact indicators» for France from 1975 to 1982 are computed. These indicators pinpoint the main fiscal and budgetary policy evolutions : expansive in 1975 and 1981-1982, restrictive in 1976 and 1977. An expansive aspect may also be seen in 1980. The undesired or automatic evolution of the budget reflects structural changes in the economy as well as cyclical fluctuations. Eventually, a quick comparison having been made with OECD studies, extensions of the analysis are suggested to integrate more successfully the monetary and financial dimension of the budget policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian de Boissieu & Alain Gubian, 1984. "Les indicateurs de la politique budgétaire et fiscale. Application au cas français," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 9(1), pages 81-124.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:rvofce:ofce_0751-6614_1984_num_9_1_1001
    DOI: 10.3406/ofce.1984.1001
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ofce.1984.1001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Patrice Mantz & Agnès Ramond & Max Tabouillot & Michel Ungemuth, 1983. "Le poids des prélèvements obligatoires : portée et limites de la mesure," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 157(1), pages 47-60.
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    1. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5952 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Alain Fonteneau & Alain Gubian, 1985. "Comparaison des relances françaises de 1975 et 1981-1982," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 12(1), pages 123-156.
    3. Jean-Paul Fitoussi & Jacques Le Cacheux, 1988. "Ruptures et continuités dans l'orientation des politiques macroéconomiques des pays de l'OCDE," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 22(1), pages 131-164.
    4. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5952 is not listed on IDEAS

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