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Modèles politico-économétriques et prévisions électorales pour mai 2007

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  • Jean-Dominique Lafay
  • François Facchini
  • Antoine Auberger

Abstract

[eng] Politico-Econometric Models and Electoral Predictions for May 2007 in France . This paper discusses the question of electoral prediction based on politicoeconometric models. It presents a brief historical sketch of this specific research domain in political economy, and a synthesis of the present model-based predictions for the French 2007 presidential elections. Because the reviewed models predict different and somewhat opposed results, we suggest to use an ex ante arbitrage, based on a simple indicator, the Figaro-Sofres popularity index for the socialist party. The arbitrage between potential winners appears to be very clear. As this paper is written six weeks ante eventum, it can be seen as a kind of natural experiment in itself, useful to test the predictive capacity of our selected indicator. [fre] Modèles politico-économétriques et prévisions électorales pour mai 2007 . Cet article traite des prévisions électorales établies à partir des modèles politico-économétriques. Il présente un bref historique de ce domaine particulier de la recherche en économie politique ainsi qu’une synthèse des prévisions effectuées sur cette base pour les élections présidentielles françaises de 2007. Bien que les différents modèles recensés aient des structures proches, les prévisions concernant l’identité du vainqueur sont sensiblement diffé- rentes, sinon quelque peu contradictoires. Nous proposons ici de recourir à l’arbitrage ex ante d’un indicateur simple, l’indice de popularité Figaro-Sofres du parti socialiste (en supposant que le second tour se présentera sous la forme d’un duel droite-gauche classique). L’arbitrage a l’avantage de donner des résultats clairs. Cet article, écrit deux mois ante eventum, peut être considéré comme une expérience naturelle permettant de tester la puissance de l’indicateur retenu.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Dominique Lafay & François Facchini & Antoine Auberger, 2007. "Modèles politico-économétriques et prévisions électorales pour mai 2007," Revue Française d'Économie, Programme National Persée, vol. 21(4), pages 145-164.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:rfreco:rfeco_0769-0479_2007_num_21_4_1687
    DOI: 10.3406/rfeco.2007.1687
    Note: DOI:10.3406/rfeco.2007.1687
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    Cited by:

    1. Nadeau, Richard & Lewis-Beck, Michael S. & Bélanger, Éric, 2010. "Electoral forecasting in France: A multi-equation solution," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 11-18, January.
    2. Antoine Auberger, 2021. "Vote, popularity, unemployment and French presidential elections [Vote, popularité, chômage et élections présidentielles françaises]," Working Papers hal-03480855, HAL.

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