IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/prs/rfreco/rfeco_0769-0479_1995_num_10_1_974.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Un modèle théorique de la dynamique de l'hyperinflation : une reformulation du modèle de Cagan

Author

Listed:
  • Valérie Lelièvre

Abstract

[fre] Cet article présente un modèle théorique visant à expliquer la dynamique de l'hyperinflation. Il constitue une reformulation du modèle de Cagan [1956], dans lequel ont été introduites des hypothèses nouvelles visant à rendre compte de la réalité du processus hyperinflationniste dans les pays d'Amérique Latine. Le modèle développé repose sur une contrainte budgétaire gouvernementale et sur l'équation de demande de monnaie de Cagan. Trois hypothèses nouvelles sont retenues : les anticipations des agents sont rationnelles, la demande de monnaie des agents est instable et l'offre de monnaie est endogène. Dans ce modèle, la dynamique de l'hyperinflation trouve ses origines sur le marché des encaisses réelles: c'est le financement monétaire du déficit budgétaire et le prélèvement des impôts par l'inflation qui vont impulser cette dynamique en agissant sur l'offre et sur la demande d'encaisses des agents. Les différents « chocs budgétaires » (accroissements du déficit budgétaire) vont conduire à un déplacement de l'équilibre et de la courbe de demande sur le marché des encaisses réelles, qui va accélérer et entretenir la dynamique de l'hyperinflation. [eng] Valérie Lelièvre A theoretical model of the dynamics of hyperinflation: Cagan's model revisited. This paper presents a theoretical model whose purpose is to explain the dynamics of hyperinflation. It is a reformulation of Cagan's 1956 model in which hypothesis are added to explain the reality of hyperinflationist process in Latin America. The model includes a government budget constraint and the money demand equation of Cagan's model. Three new hypothesis are introduced: expectations are rational, the money demand is unstable and money supply is endogeneous. Dynamics hyperinflation's origins are situated on real balance market: fiscal deficit financed by printing money and inflation taxes launch hyperinflation by acting on supply and demand on real balance. "Budgetary shocks" conduce to a shifting of demand and equilibrium on real cash market which accelerate and emphasize hyperinflation's dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Valérie Lelièvre, 1995. "Un modèle théorique de la dynamique de l'hyperinflation : une reformulation du modèle de Cagan," Revue Française d'Économie, Programme National Persée, vol. 10(1), pages 115-133.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:rfreco:rfeco_0769-0479_1995_num_10_1_974
    DOI: 10.3406/rfeco.1995.974
    Note: DOI:10.3406/rfeco.1995.974
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.3406/rfeco.1995.974
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.persee.fr/doc/rfeco_0769-0479_1995_num_10_1_974
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.3406/rfeco.1995.974?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thomas J. Sargent, 1982. "The Ends of Four Big Inflations," NBER Chapters, in: Inflation: Causes and Effects, pages 41-98, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Michael Bruno & Guido Di Tella & Rudiger Dornbusch & Stanley Fischer, 1988. "Inflation Stabilization: The Experience of Israel, Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia, and Mexico," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262022796, April.
    3. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1973. "Rational Expectations and the Dynamics of Hyperinflation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 14(2), pages 328-350, June.
    4. Bruno, Michael, 1989. "Econometrics and the Design of Economic Reform," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 275-306, March.
    5. Friedman, Milton, 1971. "Government Revenue from Inflation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(4), pages 846-856, July-Aug..
    6. Khan, Mohsin S, 1980. "Dynamic Stability in the Cagan Model of Hyperinflation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 21(3), pages 577-582, October.
    7. Stanley Fischer, 1986. "Indexing, Inflation, and Economic Policy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262561638, April.
    8. Baer, Werner, 1987. "The resurgence of inflation in Brazil, 1974-1986," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 15(8), pages 1007-1034, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gérard Kremer & Ali Bouhaili, 1992. "Modèles monétaristes de l'hyperinflation," Revue Tiers Monde, Programme National Persée, vol. 33(129), pages 113-136.
    2. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2009. "Central Banking and Monetary Policy in the Asia-Pacific," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12777.
    3. Guillermo A. Calvo, 2016. "From Chronic Inflation to Chronic Deflation: Focusing on Expectations and Liquidity Disarray Since WWII," NBER Working Papers 22535, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Vegh, Carlos, 1991. "Stopping High Inflation: An Analytical Overview," MPRA Paper 20175, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Pekarski, Sergey, 2011. "Budget deficits and inflation feedback," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 1-11, February.
    6. Miller, Stephen Matteo & Ndhlela, Thandinkosi, 2020. "Money demand and seignorage maximization before the end of the Zimbabwean dollar," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    7. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/4vc7skecu3q7u7s984pi2eaan is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Bordo, Michael D., 1986. "Explorations in monetary history: A survey of the literature," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 339-415, October.
    9. Henry, Peter B., 2000. "Is Disinflation Good for Growth?," Research Papers 1657, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    10. Neven Valev, 2000. "Building Monetary Credibility in a Transforming Economy," International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper0212, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
    11. Mondino, Guillermo & Sturzenegger, Federico & Tommasi, Mariano, 1996. "Recurrent High Inflation and Stabilization: A Dynamic Game," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 37(4), pages 981-996, November.
    12. Buiter, Willem H., 2007. "Seigniorage," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 1, pages 1-49.
    13. Binder, Carola Conces, 2016. "Estimation of historical inflation expectations," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-31.
    14. Federico Echenique & Alvaro Forteza, 2000. "Are stabilization programs expansionary?," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 15(1), pages 65-89.
    15. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/6961 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Stanley Fischer & Ratna Sahay & Carlos A. Végh, 2002. "Modern Hyper- and High Inflations," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(3), pages 837-880, September.
    17. Peter N. Ireland, 1997. "Stopping inflations, big and small," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 759-782.
    18. Melnick, Rafi & Strohsal, Till, 2016. "Disinflation and the Phillips Curve: Israel 1986-2015," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2016-039, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    19. Carlson, John A. & Valev, Neven T., 2001. "Credibility of a new monetary regime: The currency board in Bulgaria," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 581-594, June.
    20. Sumru Altug, 2004. "Notes on Hyperinflations," Working Papers 2004/10, Turkish Economic Association.
    21. Dornbusch, Rudiger & Fischer, Stanley, 1993. "Moderate Inflation," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 7(1), pages 1-44, January.
    22. Jérôme Sgard, 1999. "Crise financière, inflation et Currency Board en Bulgarie : les leçons d'une transition indisciplinée," Post-Print hal-03585877, HAL.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:prs:rfreco:rfeco_0769-0479_1995_num_10_1_974. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Equipe PERSEE (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.persee.fr/collection/rfeco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.