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Attaques spéculatives et crédibilité du régime de change. Quel arbitrage pour le policy-mix ?

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  • Jean-Pierre Allegret
  • Marie-Noëlle Calès

Abstract

[fre] Les crises asiatique et brésilienne ont intensifié le débat relatif à la politique économique à mettre en œuvre par les autorités face à une crise de change. L'augmentation des taux d'intérêt accompagnée d'une politique budgétaire restrictive peut se révéler contreproductive eu égard à l'objectif de stabilisation du change. Cet article analyse la question de la crédibilité du policy-mix mis en œuvre par les autorités pour contrer une crise de change. La perspective adoptée se situe dans la lignée des travaux développés en termes de crise de crédibilité mais elle s'en démarque en introduisant explicitement la politique budgétaire dans l'analyse. Le modèle suggère qu'une politique budgétaire restrictive n'est pas nécessairement la décision la plus crédible. [eng] Speculative attacks and credibility of exchange rate regime: what policy-mix trade-off?. . Since the Asian and Brazilian exchange rate crises have occurred, the reaction of authorities has been the subject of an intense debate. Indeed, coping with a speculative attack, domestic authorities both increase interest rates and contract fiscal policy. It appears that such a combination of policy instruments is counter­productive. This paper analyses the credibility of the policy-mix used by authorities. But, opposite to traditional credibility models, fiscal policy is explicitly introduced in the loss function of the authorities. The model suggests that a restrictive fiscal policy is not necessary a credible decision to defence the exchange rate target.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Pierre Allegret & Marie-Noëlle Calès, 2001. "Attaques spéculatives et crédibilité du régime de change. Quel arbitrage pour le policy-mix ?," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 52(2), pages 249-264.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_2001_num_52_2_410313
    DOI: 10.3406/reco.2001.410313
    Note: DOI:10.3406/reco.2001.410313
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    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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