IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/prs/reveco/reco_0035-2764_1996_num_47_1_409761.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Le modèle d'évaluation des actions confronté aux anticipations des agents informés

Author

Listed:
  • Georges Prat

Abstract

[eng] With respect to the standard valuation model, this paper aims to solve the pro­blem of the determination of the expected return by using stock price expectations (S&P industrial index) revealed by Livingston's survey date issued from a panel of experts. It then becomes possible to give a measure of the "effective ex-ante risk premium". This premium appears to take rather realistic values and can be explained altogether by the "consumer sentiment index" which stands for the general economic confidence, and an indicator of financial uncertainty related to the risk of capital depreciation. Hence, experts' expectations are what one would expect if there is any truth to the present value model of stock price. [fre] Les anticipations de l'indice S&P des actions industrielles cotées au NYSE, révélées par les enquêtes menées depuis 1954 par J. Livingston auprès d'un panel d'experts, permettent, dans le cadre du modèle standard d'évaluation des actions, de calculer une « prime de risque effective ex-ante ». Outre le fait que cette prime semble prendre des valeurs réalistes, elle peut être « expliquée » pour l'essentiel par un indicateur d'opinion traduisant la « confiance économique » et un indicateur traduisant le risque de perte en capital. Ainsi « tout se passe comme si » le modèle standard d'évaluation était compatible avec les anticipations bour­sières des experts américains.

Suggested Citation

  • Georges Prat, 1996. "Le modèle d'évaluation des actions confronté aux anticipations des agents informés," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 47(1), pages 85-110.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_1996_num_47_1_409761
    DOI: 10.3406/reco.1996.409761
    Note: DOI:10.3406/reco.1996.409761
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.3406/reco.1996.409761
    Download Restriction: Data and metadata provided by Persée are licensed under a Creative Commons "Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 3.0" License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/
    File URL: https://www.persee.fr/doc/reco_0035-2764_1996_num_47_1_409761
    Download Restriction: Data and metadata provided by Persée are licensed under a Creative Commons "Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 3.0" License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.3406/reco.1996.409761?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. F. Thomas Juster & Paul Wachtel, 1972. "Inflation and the Consumer," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 3(1), pages 71-122.
    2. Paul G. Darling, 1955. "A Surrogative Measure Of Business Confidence And Its Relation To Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 10(4), pages 442-458, December.
    3. William A. Brock, 1982. "Asset Prices in a Production Economy," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Information and Uncertainty, pages 1-46, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. John J. McCall, 1982. "The Economics of Information and Uncertainty," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number mcca82-1.
    5. French, Kenneth R. & Schwert, G. William & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1987. "Expected stock returns and volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-29, September.
    6. De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-738, August.
    7. John J. McCall, 1982. "Introduction to "The Economics of Information and Uncertainty"," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Information and Uncertainty, pages -11, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Chen, Nai-Fu & Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1986. "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 383-403, July.
    9. Georges Prat, 1994. "La formation des anticipations boursières," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 112(1), pages 101-125.
    10. Breeden, Douglas T., 1979. "An intertemporal asset pricing model with stochastic consumption and investment opportunities," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 265-296, September.
    11. Brown, Bryan W & Maital, Shlomo, 1981. "What Do Economists Know? An Empirical Study of Experts' Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(2), pages 491-504, March.
    12. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-1445, November.
    13. Lease, Ronald C. & McConnell, John J. & Mikkelson, Wayne H., 1983. "The market value of control in publicly-traded corporations," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1-4), pages 439-471, April.
    14. Artus, P., 1993. "Prime de risque excessive sur les actions : une revue des explications et un regard sur le cas francais," Papers 1993-03-t, Caisse des Depots et Consignations - Cahiers de recherche.
    15. Lakonishok, Josef, 1980. "Stock Market Return Expectations: Some General Properties," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(4), pages 921-931, September.
    16. Michael C. Lovell, 1975. "Why Was the Consumer Feeling So Sad?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 6(2), pages 473-479.
    17. Balvers, Ronald J & Cosimano, Thomas F & McDonald, Bill, 1990. "Predicting Stock Returns in an Efficient Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1109-1128, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alain Abou & Georges Prat, 1986. "Ex-ante risk premia in the US stock market: analysing experts' behaviour at the individual level," Post-Print halshs-00172883, HAL.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Georges Prat, 1994. "La formation des anticipations boursières," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 112(1), pages 101-125.
    2. Kramer, Charles, 1999. "Noise trading, transaction costs, and the relationship of stock returns and trading volume," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 343-362, November.
    3. Prat, Georges, 2013. "Equity risk premium and time horizon: What do the U.S. secular data say?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 76-88.
    4. Lu Zhang, 2017. "The Investment CAPM," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 23(4), pages 545-603, September.
    5. Thomas Chiang & Jose Trinidad, 1997. "Risk and International Parity Conditions: A Synthesis from Consumption Based Models," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 73-101.
    6. Shen, Junyan & Yu, Jianfeng & Zhao, Shen, 2017. "Investor sentiment and economic forces," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 1-21.
    7. Keunbae Ahn, 2021. "Predictable Fluctuations in the Cross-Section and Time-Series of Asset Prices," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 1-2021, January-A.
    8. William A. Brock & Blake LeBaron, 1990. "Liquidity Constraints in Production-Based Asset-Pricing Models," NBER Chapters, in: Asymmetric Information, Corporate Finance, and Investment, pages 231-256, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Basak, Suleyman, 1999. "On the fluctuations in consumption and market returns in the presence of labor and human capital: An equilibrium analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(7), pages 1029-1064, June.
    10. Basu, Parantap & Samanta, Prodyot, 2001. "Volatility and stock prices: implications from a production model of asset pricing," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 229-235, February.
    11. Angela J. Black & David G. McMillan, 2004. "Non‐linear Predictability of Value and Growth Stocks and Economic Activity," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(3‐4), pages 439-474, April.
    12. Campbell, John Y, 1993. "Intertemporal Asset Pricing without Consumption Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 487-512, June.
    13. Belo, Frederico, 2010. "Production-based measures of risk for asset pricing," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 146-163, March.
    14. Campbell, John Y., 2003. "Consumption-based asset pricing," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 13, pages 803-887, Elsevier.
    15. Kumar, Praveen, 2006. "Learning about investment risk: The effects of structural uncertainty on dynamic investment and consumption," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 205-229, June.
    16. Alain Abou & Georges Prat, 2009. "The dynamics of U.S. equity risk premia: lessons from professionals'view," Working Papers hal-04140869, HAL.
    17. Nunes, Mauricio & Da Silva, Sergio, 2005. "Política Monetária e Relação entre PIB Real e Mercado de Ações na Economia Brasileira [Monetary policy and the relationship between real GDP and stockmarket in the Brazilian economy]," MPRA Paper 4158, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Chen, Ming-Hsiang, 2003. "Risk and return: CAPM and CCAPM," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 369-393.
    19. H. Youn Kim, 2003. "Intertemporal production and asset pricing: a duality approach," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 55(2), pages 344-379, April.
    20. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2013. "Understanding Asset Prices," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2013-1, Nobel Prize Committee.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_1996_num_47_1_409761. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Equipe PERSEE (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.persee.fr/collection/reco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.