IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/prs/reveco/reco_0035-2764_1995_num_46_3_409671.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Taux d'intérêt, spreads, comportement bancaire : les effets sur l'activité réelle

Author

Listed:
  • Fernando Barran
  • Virginie Coudert
  • Benoît Mojon

Abstract

[eng] Interest rates, banking spreads and credit supply : the real effects. In a standard ISLM model, the effects of monetary policy work through the demand for money and the (unique) interest rate. In fact, shocks of monetary policy will affect the relative structure of interest rates. In this paper we analyse the information content of the relative structure of interest rates on economic activity. Over and above currently defi­ned spreads, we have defined spreads based on bank interest rates. A major conclusion is that these banking spreads are informative about economic activity, even though the relationship between financial aggregates and real activity has weakened. This seems to confirm the important role that banks play in economic activity. [fre] Alors que la relation entre agrégats monétaires et activité économique se dégrade, les estimations empiriques montrent que les spreads de taux d'intérêt sont de bons indicateurs avancés de l'activité. Nous testons ici le pouvoir prédictif des spreads de taux d'intérêt bancaires en les comparant aux agrégats monétai­res, aux taux d'intérêt et aux spreads de marché généralement utilisés dans la lit­térature. Les arguments avancés pour justifier leur utilisation sont fondés sur le comportement bancaire tel qu'il apparaît dans le canal de transmission de la poli­tique monétaire par le crédit. À l'aide de tests de causalité, nous établissons le caractère prédictif de ces spreads bancaires dans les pays du G5.

Suggested Citation

  • Fernando Barran & Virginie Coudert & Benoît Mojon, 1995. "Taux d'intérêt, spreads, comportement bancaire : les effets sur l'activité réelle," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 46(3), pages 625-634.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_1995_num_46_3_409671
    DOI: 10.3406/reco.1995.409671
    Note: DOI:10.3406/reco.1995.409671
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.3406/reco.1995.409671
    Download Restriction: Data and metadata provided by Persée are licensed under a Creative Commons "Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 3.0" License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/
    File URL: https://www.persee.fr/doc/reco_0035-2764_1995_num_46_3_409671
    Download Restriction: Data and metadata provided by Persée are licensed under a Creative Commons "Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 3.0" License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.3406/reco.1995.409671?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Comparison of Interwar and Postwar Business Cycles: Monetarism Reconsidered," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(2), pages 250-257, May.
    2. E. P. Davis & S. G. B. Henry, 1994. "The Use of Financial Spreads as Indicator Variables: Evidence for the United Kingdom and Germany," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(3), pages 517-525, September.
    3. Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1994. "Monetary Policy, Business Cycles, and the Behavior of Small Manufacturing Firms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(2), pages 309-340.
    4. Eric Dubois & Didier Janci, 1994. "Prévision du PIB par la courbe des taux : une constatation empirique en quête de théorie," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 112(1), pages 69-85.
    5. Patrick Artus & Moncef Kaabi, 1994. "Structure par terme des taux d'intérêt et reprise économique," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 112(1), pages 87-99.
    6. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1988. "Credit, Money, and Aggregate Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(2), pages 435-439, May.
    7. Dolado, Juan J & Jenkinson, Tim & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon, 1990. "Cointegration and Unit Roots," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(3), pages 249-273.
    8. Benjamin M. Friedman & Kenneth Kuttner, 1993. "Why Does the Paper-Bill Spread Predict Real Economic Activity?," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting, pages 213-254, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Jappelli, Tullio & Pagano, Marco, 1989. "Consumption and Capital Market Imperfections: An International Comparison," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(5), pages 1088-1105, December.
    10. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-921, September.
    11. Kashyap, Anil K & Stein, Jeremy C & Wilcox, David W, 1993. "Monetary Policy and Credit Conditions: Evidence from the Composition of External Finance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 78-98, March.
    12. Ben S. Bernanke, 1990. "On the predictive power of interest rates and interest rate spreads," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Nov, pages 51-68.
    13. E. P. Davis & S. G. B. Henry, 1994. "The Use of Financial Spreads As Indicator Variables: Evidence for the U.K. and Germany," IMF Working Papers 1994/031, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Fama, Eugene F., 1990. "Term-structure forecasts of interest rates, inflation and real returns," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 59-76, January.
    15. Friedman, Benjamin M & Kuttner, Kenneth N, 1992. "Money, Income, Prices, and Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 472-492, June.
    16. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1989. "New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 351-409, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Toru Konishi & Valerie A. Ramey & Clive W.J. Granger, 1993. "Stochastic Trends and Short-Run Relationships Between Financial Variables and Real Activity," NBER Working Papers 4275, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Hardouvelis, Gikas A., 1994. "The term structure spread and future changes in long and short rates in the G7 countries: Is there a puzzle?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 255-283, April.
    19. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
    20. F. Barran & V. Coudert & B. Mojon, 1997. "Interest rates, banking spreads and credit supply: the real effects," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 107-136.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. F. Barran & V. Coudert & B. Mojon, 1997. "Interest rates, banking spreads and credit supply: the real effects," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 107-136.
    2. Anil K. Kashyap & Jeremy C. Stein, 1994. "Monetary Policy and Bank Lending," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 221-261, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Rossiter, R. D., 1995. "Monetary policy indicators after deregulation," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 207-223.
    4. Smant, David / D.J.C., 2002. "Bank credit in the transmission of monetary policy: A critical review of the issues and evidence," MPRA Paper 19816, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. James H. Stock & Mark W.Watson, 2003. "Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(3), pages 788-829, September.
    6. Repullo, Rafael & Suarez, Javier, 2000. "Entrepreneurial moral hazard and bank monitoring: A model of the credit channel," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(10), pages 1931-1950, December.
    7. Edward N. Gamber, 1996. "The policy content of the yield curve slope," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(2), pages 163-179.
    8. Calomiris, Charles W. & Himmelberg, Charles P. & Wachtel, Paul, 1995. "Commercial paper, corporate finance, and the business cycle: a microeconomic perspective," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 203-250, June.
    9. Andrea Nobili, 2005. "Forecasting Output Growth And Inflation In The Euro Area: Are Financial Spreads Useful?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 544, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    10. Benjamin M. Friedman & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 1998. "Indicator Properties Of The Paper-Bill Spread: Lessons From Recent Experience," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(1), pages 34-44, February.
    11. Willi Semmler, 2011. "Asset Prices, Booms and Recessions," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-642-20680-1, December.
    12. Kashyap, Anil K & Stein, Jeremy C & Wilcox, David W, 1993. "Monetary Policy and Credit Conditions: Evidence from the Composition of External Finance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 78-98, March.
    13. Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels & Andros Kourtellos, 2013. "Should Macroeconomic Forecasters Use Daily Financial Data and How?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(2), pages 240-251, April.
    14. Aadland, David, 2005. "Detrending time-aggregated data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 89(3), pages 287-293, December.
    15. Ramey, Valerie, 1993. "How important is the credit channel in the transmission of monetary policy?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 1-45, December.
    16. Chava, Sudheer & Purnanandam, Amiyatosh, 2011. "The effect of banking crisis on bank-dependent borrowers," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 116-135, January.
    17. Guillaume Colosiez & Mouldi Djelassi, 1993. "La redécouverte des cycles financiers," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 26(3), pages 109-144.
    18. Hamilton, James D & Kim, Dong Heon, 2002. "A Reexamination of the Predictability of Economic Activity Using the Yield Spread," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(2), pages 340-360, May.
    19. Christopher L. House, 2002. "Adverse Selection and the Accelerator," Macroeconomics 0211015, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Davis, Steven J. & Haltiwanger, John, 2001. "Sectoral job creation and destruction responses to oil price changes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 465-512, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_1995_num_46_3_409671. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Equipe PERSEE (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.persee.fr/collection/reco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.