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La localisation des investissements français dans trois zones de l'OCDE. Une analyse économétrique des balances des paiements depuis 1979

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  • Jérôme Henry

Abstract

[fre] La localisation des investissements français dans trois zones de l'OCDE. Une analyse économétrique des balances des paiements depuis 1979. . À partir des flux d'investissements étrangers directs entre la France et le Reste du Monde, observés en balance des paiements trimestrielle, sont évalués des stocks en termes réels. La répartition de ces derniers fait apparaître la pré­pondérance des pays de l'OCDE, et notamment celle de la CEE depuis 1987. L'étude économétrique, en environnement non stationnaire, suggère que le com­portement d'investissement français vers trois grandes zones (CEE, Amérique du Nord et Reste de l'OCDE) peut être relié à des indicateurs macro-économiques. Interviennent à long terme le taux de change réel, les demandes externes, la pro­pension à exporter de l'économie française et l'endettement des entreprises. À titre transitoire, le coût du capital et les écarts à la parité des taux d'intérêt jouent aussi un rôle. Les résultats apparaissent plus fragiles pour la zone américaine que pour la CEE et le Reste de l'OCDE. Enfin, les investissements à destination de ces deux dernières zones peuvent être considérés comme obéissant au même comportement. [eng] The localisation of french direct investment in three OECD areas : an econometric analysis of the balance of payments since 1979. . Flows of French direct investment abroad in the French quarterly balance of payments are cumulated in real terms in order to build stock data. The observed allocation of Direct Investment Abroad shows the importance of OECD countries, namely that of the EEC since 1987. Non-stationary econometrics based on these data suggest that the French behaviour in terms of Foreign Direct Investment towards three areas (EEC, North America and Other OECD countries) can be related to macro-economic variables. Real exchange rate, external demand, French propensity to export and companies'debt matter in the long run. In the short nin, capital cost and deviation from the uncovered interest rate parity matter too. The results are less convincing for North America than they are for the EEC and other OECD countries. Finally, the investments towards the latter two areas can be considered to be following the same behavioural equation.

Suggested Citation

  • Jérôme Henry, 1993. "La localisation des investissements français dans trois zones de l'OCDE. Une analyse économétrique des balances des paiements depuis 1979," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 44(4), pages 737-754.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_1993_num_44_4_409476
    DOI: 10.3406/reco.1993.409476
    Note: DOI:10.3406/reco.1993.409476
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