IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/prs/reveco/reco_0035-2764_1990_num_41_5_409241.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Le rôle des influences interpersonnelles dans la détermination des cours boursiers

Author

Listed:
  • André Orléan

Abstract

[fre] The role of interindividu al influences in the determination of stock prices. . Modem economic theory has shown that there is no incompatibility between the assumption of rational behavior and the possibility of speculative bubbles. Nevertheless the theory of rational bubbles is incomplete insofar as it tells us nothing about the kind of rational exploitation of information that gives lise to a bubble. Our idea is that, at the roots of bubbles, we find a rational use of the information contained in the average opinion of the market. Under certain conditions, this use, which follows the bayesian rules, will conduct to a self-validating mimetic contagion. This process converges to, what we have called, a rational mimetic bubble. [eng] The role of interindividu al influences in the determination of stock prices. . Modem economic theory has shown that there is no incompatibility between the assumption of rational behavior and the possibility of speculative bubbles. Nevertheless the theory of rational bubbles is incomplete insofar as it tells us nothing about the kind of rational exploitation of information that gives lise to a bubble. Our idea is that, at the roots of bubbles, we find a rational use of the information contained in the average opinion of the market. Under certain conditions, this use, which follows the bayesian rules, will conduct to a self-validating mimetic contagion. This process converges to, what we have called, a rational mimetic bubble.

Suggested Citation

  • André Orléan, 1990. "Le rôle des influences interpersonnelles dans la détermination des cours boursiers," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 41(5), pages 839-868.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_1990_num_41_5_409241
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.persee.fr/doc/reco_0035-2764_1990_num_41_5_409241
    Download Restriction: Data and metadata provided by Persée are licensed under a Creative Commons "Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 3.0" License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Adam, M.C. & Szafarz, A., 1988. "On The Definition Of Speculative Bubbles," Papers 8806, Universite Libre de Bruxelles - C.E.M.E..
    2. Roger Guesnerie & Costas Azariadis, 1982. "Prophéties créatrices et persistance des théories," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 33(5), pages 787-806.
    3. De Long, J Bradford, et al, 1990. "Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 379-395, June.
    4. Brunner, Karl & Meltzer, Allan H., 1987. "Bubbles and other essays," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 1-8, January.
    5. Azariadis, Costas, 1981. "Self-fulfilling prophecies," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 380-396, December.
    6. Grossman, Sanford J, 1976. "On the Efficiency of Competitive Stock Markets Where Trades Have Diverse Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 573-585, May.
    7. Flood, Robert P & Garber, Peter M, 1980. "Market Fundamentals versus Price-Level Bubbles: The First Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(4), pages 745-770, August.
    8. André ORLEAN, 1986. "Mimétisme et anticipations rationnelles: une perspective keynésienne," Discussion Papers (REL - Recherches Economiques de Louvain) 1986012, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    9. J. Michael Harrison & David M. Kreps, 1978. "Speculative Investor Behavior in a Stock Market with Heterogeneous Expectations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 92(2), pages 323-336.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Piluso, Nicolas, 2008. "La convention financière chez Keynes," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 84(1), pages 101-121, mars.
    2. Irène Hors, 1995. "Des modèles de transition de phase en économie ?," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 46(3), pages 817-826.
    3. Nicolas Piluso, 2015. "Un examen critique des liens entre le Traité des probabilités et la Théorie générale de Keynes," Post-Print hal-01399077, HAL.
    4. Fredj Jawadi & Catherine Bruneau & Nadia Sghaier, 2009. "Nonlinear Cointegration Relationships Between Non‐Life Insurance Premiums and Financial Markets," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 76(3), pages 753-783, September.
    5. Dupuy Jean-Pierre, 1996. "The Logic of Imitation," Journal des Economistes et des Etudes Humaines, De Gruyter, vol. 7(4), pages 597-616, December.
    6. Pierre Laurent, 1995. "Hétérogénéité et interactions des agents sur le marché des changes," Revue Française d'Économie, Programme National Persée, vol. 10(1), pages 87-113.
    7. Hemche, Omar & Jawadi, Fredj & Maliki, Samir B. & Cheffou, Abdoulkarim Idi, 2016. "On the study of contagion in the context of the subprime crisis: A dynamic conditional correlation–multivariate GARCH approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 292-299.
    8. Aldo Levy & Larry Bensimhon, 2009. "Crises financières : rôle de l'information et mimétisme légal," Post-Print halshs-00593988, HAL.
    9. Aldo Levy & Larry Bensimhon, 2010. "The origin of stock-market crashes: proposal for a mimetic model using behavioral assumptions and an analysis of legal mimicry," Post-Print halshs-00593986, HAL.
    10. André Orléan, 1994. "Analyse des phénomènes d'influence : de la psychologie sociale et cognitive à l'économie financière," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 45(3), pages 657-672.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bordalo, Pedro & Gennaioli, Nicola & Kwon, Spencer Yongwook & Shleifer, Andrei, 2021. "Diagnostic bubbles," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(3), pages 1060-1077.
    2. Robert P. Flood & Robert J. Hodrick, 1989. "Testable Implications of Indeterminacies in Models with Rational Expectations," NBER Working Papers 2903, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Luz, Valentin & Schauer, Victor & Viehweger, Martin, 2024. "Beyond preferences: Beliefs in sustainable investing," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 220(C), pages 584-607.
    4. R. Andergassen, 2003. "Rational destabilising speculation and the riding of bubbles," Working Papers 475, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    5. Yue Zhao & Difang Wan, 2018. "Institutional high frequency trading and price discovery: Evidence from an emerging commodity futures market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(2), pages 243-270, February.
    6. Enders, Zeno & Hakenes, Hendrik Hakenes, 2014. "On the Existence and Prevention of Speculative Bubbles," Working Papers 0567, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    7. Ms. Anna Scherbina, 2013. "Asset Price Bubbles: A Selective Survey," IMF Working Papers 2013/045, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Damir Tokic, 2014. "Legitimate speculation versus excessive speculation," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 15(6), pages 378-391, December.
    9. Desgranges, Gabriel & Negroni, Giorgio, 2003. "Expectations Coordination On A Sunspot Equilibrium: An Eductive Approach," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(1), pages 7-41, February.
    10. Barberis, Nicholas & Greenwood, Robin & Jin, Lawrence & Shleifer, Andrei, 2015. "X-CAPM: An extrapolative capital asset pricing model," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 1-24.
    11. Francisco Barillas & Kristoffer Nimark, 2012. "Speculation, risk premia and expectations in the yield curve," Economics Working Papers 1337, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Nov 2013.
    12. Katsuhiro Oshima, 2019. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Monetary Policy, and Stock Price Volatility," KIER Working Papers 1013, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    13. Barberis, Nicholas & Greenwood, Robin & Jin, Lawrence & Shleifer, Andrei, 2018. "Extrapolation and bubbles," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(2), pages 203-227.
    14. Franklin Allen & Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2003. "Beauty Contests, Bubbles and Iterated Expectations in Asset Markets," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1406, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    15. Liao, Jingchi & Peng, Cameron & Zhu, Ning, 2021. "Extrapolative bubbles and trading volume," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118887, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    16. Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2022. "Game on: Social networks and markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 1097-1119.
    17. Si Chen, 2022. "Information and dynamic trading with the Gambler’s fallacy," Mathematics and Financial Economics, Springer, volume 16, number 1, December.
    18. Baker, Malcolm & Wurgler, Jeffrey & Yuan, Yu, 2012. "Global, local, and contagious investor sentiment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 272-287.
    19. Yao, Jing & Zheng, Zexin, 2021. "Costly arbitrage and skewness pricing: Evidence from first-day price limit reform in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    20. Brunnermeier, Markus K. & Oehmke, Martin, 2013. "Bubbles, Financial Crises, and Systemic Risk," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1221-1288, Elsevier.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_1990_num_41_5_409241. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Equipe PERSEE (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.persee.fr/collection/reco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.