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Game on: Social networks and markets

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  • Pedersen, Lasse Heje

Abstract

I present closed-form solutions for prices, portfolios, and beliefs in a model where four types of investors trade assets over time: naive investors who learn via a social network, “fanatics” possibly spreading fake news, and rational short- and long-term investors. I show that fanatic and rational views dominate over time, and their relative importance depends on their following by influencers. Securities markets exhibit social network spillovers, large effects of influencers and thought leaders, bubbles, bursts of high volume, price momentum, fundamental momentum, and reversal. The model sheds new light on the GameStop event, historical bubbles, and asset markets more generally.

Suggested Citation

  • Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2022. "Game on: Social networks and markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 1097-1119.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:146:y:2022:i:3:p:1097-1119
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2022.05.002
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    2. Guimaraes, Bernardo & Pannella, Pierluca, 2024. "Short-covering bubbles," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    3. Kwansoo Kim & Sang-Yong Tom Lee & Robert J. Kauffman, 2023. "Social informedness and investor sentiment in the GameStop short squeeze," Electronic Markets, Springer;IIM University of St. Gallen, vol. 33(1), pages 1-24, December.
    4. Hangbo Liu & Xuemeng Guo & Dachen Sheng, 2024. "The Impact of Heterogeneous Market Sentiments on Corporate Risk-Taking and Governance," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-21, November.
    5. Nobanee, Haitham & Ellili, Nejla Ould Daoud, 2023. "What do we know about meme stocks? A bibliometric and systematic review, current streams, developments, and directions for future research," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 589-602.
    6. Amin Izadyar & Shiva Zamani, 2022. "Investor base and idiosyncratic volatility of cryptocurrencies," Papers 2211.13274, arXiv.org.
    7. Cai, Xing & Xia, Wei & Huang, Weihua & Yang, Haijun, 2024. "Dynamics of momentum in financial markets based on the information diffusion in complex social networks," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    8. Müller, Karsten & Pan, Yuanyuan & Schwarz, Carlo, 2023. "Social Media and Stock Market Participation," CEPR Discussion Papers 18445, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Ingar Haaland & Ole-Andreas Elvik Næss & Ingar K. Haaland, 2023. "Misperceived Returns to Active Investing," CESifo Working Paper Series 10257, CESifo.
    10. Kwak, Jun Hee, 2024. "Individual investor trading and stock returns after the Covid-19 pandemic: Evidence from Korea," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    11. Kormanyos, Emily & Hanspal, Tobin & Hackethal, Andreas, 2023. "Do gamblers invest in lottery stocks?," SAFE Working Paper Series 373, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE, revised 2023.
    12. Cookson, J. Anthony & Lu, Runjing & Mullins, William & Niessner, Marina, 2024. "The social signal," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    13. Bennett Schmanski & Chiara Scotti & Clara Vega, 2023. "Fed Communication, News, Twitter, and Echo Chambers," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-036, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    14. Hirshleifer, David & Lo, Andrew W. & Zhang, Ruixun, 2023. "Social contagion and the survival of diverse investment styles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    15. Aloosh, Arash & Choi, Hyung-Eun & Ouzan, Samuel, 2023. "The tail wagging the dog: How do meme stocks affect market efficiency?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 68-78.
    16. Wu, Yanran & Wu, Shan & Xu, Fujia & Jiang, Jie, 2024. "Wisdom of crowds or awkward squad? Social interaction and the information efficiency of the Chinese capital market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    17. Zhang, Zuochao & Goodell, John W. & Shen, Dehua & Lahmar, Oumaima, 2024. "Media opinion divergence and stock returns: Evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    18. Lee, Geul & Ryu, Doojin, 2024. "Investor sentiment or information content? A simple test for investor sentiment proxies," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Networks; Influencers; Social media; Bubbles; Asset prices; Belief formation; Momentum; Reversal;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D85 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Network Formation
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G4 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance
    • G5 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance
    • L14 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Transactional Relationships; Contracts and Reputation

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