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Cohérence et estimation des fonctions de popularité. Une application au cas français

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  • Henri Capron

Abstract

[eng] Robustness and estimation of popularity functions. the French case study. . The analysis of popularity functions designed to measure the impact of economic conditions on the satisfaction level of the electorate about the government have some specifie problems wich may result in a false or partial interpretation. This article develops a popularity choice general model which takes into account the different options of the choice : satisfaction, dissatisfaction and opinionless. The French case study gives as a resuit that, if the evolution of revenue has any influence on the popularity choice, the inflation and unemployment rates exercice an asymetrie and differentiated impact upon the alternative choice options which are supplied to the electorate. [fre] Cohérence et estimation des fonctions de popularité. Une application au cas français. . Les problèmes spécifiques que soulève le recours à l'analyse de fonctions de popularité pour mesurer l'impact des conditions économiques sur le niveau de satisfaction manifesté par l'électorat à l'égard du gouvernement risquent de conduire à une interprétation erronée ou tronquée des résultats.. Le modèle général de choix de popularité développé dans cet article incorpore à l'analyse les différentes options du choix : satisfaction, mécontentement et sans opinion. Son application au cas français conduit à constater que si l'évolution des revenus n'influence pas les choix de popularité, par contre les taux d'inflation et de chômage exercent un impact différencié, de caractère asymétrique, sur les options de choix alternatives qui sont offertes à l'électorat.

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  • Henri Capron, 1987. "Cohérence et estimation des fonctions de popularité. Une application au cas français," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 38(5), pages 1029-1042.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_1987_num_38_5_409018
    DOI: 10.3406/reco.1987.409018
    Note: DOI:10.3406/reco.1987.409018
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Frey, Bruno S., 1978. "Politico-economic models and cycles," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 203-220, April.
    2. Chrystal, K Alec & Alt, James E, 1981. "Some Problems in Formulating and Testing a Politico-Economic Model of the United Kingdom," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 91(363), pages 730-736, September.
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